NDP leads Conservatives in four key B.C. ridings, poll suggests
OTTAWA — The federal New Democratic Party is leading the Conservatives in four key B.C. battleground ridings, according to a poll financed by the Dogwood Initiative, a B.C.-based environmental non-profit organization.
The poll found solid NDP leads in all four, with the Greens the only other party besides the Conservatives showing any strength at all — and solely in the new riding of Burnaby North-Seymour.
The poll also showed that a clear majority in all four ridings don’t want more oil tankers on the coast, don’t think Harper’s doing enough to fight climate change, and feel that government surveillance of Canadians has “gone too far.”
If the poll results prove accurate when the votes roll in, that would mean the defeat of veteran Conservative cabinet minister John Duncan, who is seeking a new mandate in Courtenay-Alberni.
There is a clear strategic gambit at play by Dogwood, which is planning to poll other ridings along the B.C. coast. The organization has been an aggressive critic of the Harper government’s plan to encourage the expansion of oilsands pipelines in B.C. and tanker traffic off the B.C. coast.
One of the organization’s goals was to assess whether Justin Trudeau’s Liberals or Elizabeth May’s Greens might be seen as viable options for any-but-Harper voters, according to Dogwood spokesman Kai Nagata.
“We’re not going to issue endorsements or tell anyone who to vote for,” Nagata said. “But we do want citizens to know where their candidates stand and which ones have a decent chance at winning.”
The Insights West poll of 1,204 eligible voters looked at three Vancouver Island ridings, as well as the new Burnaby North-Seymour electoral district.
Inside the boundaries of two of those ridings, Burnaby North-Seymour and Courtenay-Alberni, the Conservatives got the most votes in the 2011 election, edging the NDP in what were fairly tight two-way races. In the other two, Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke and Cowichan-Malahat-Langford, the NDP edged the Conservatives by the slightest of margins — 1.8 and 0.5 percentage points, respectively.
Now all four look, at least according to this public opinion snapshot, to be seats quite winnable for Tom Mulcair’s New Democrats.
The NDP had the support of 35 per cent of decided voters in Burnaby North-Seymour, compared with 19 per cent for the Green party, 15 per cent for the Conservatives, and six per cent for the Liberals.
In Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke, where New Democrat incumbent Randall Garrison will run, the NDP was at 42 per cent. The other three parties were in the 12 to 14 per cent range.
In Cowichan-Malahat-Langford, the NDP led the Conservatives 32 per cent to 22 per cent, with the Liberals third at 12 per cent and the Greens fourth at eight per cent.
And in Duncan’s Courtenay-Alberni riding, the NDP had an almost identical lead, 33 per cent to 23 per cent, while the Liberals were at 11 and the Greens nine.
Insights West surveyed 301 respondents in three of the ridings, and 302 in Cowichan-Malahat-Langford, from May 8-11. The company says the margin of error is plus or minus 5.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The survey suggests that Trudeau, who has charmed many British Columbians during his tours of the coast, hasn’t been able to translate that charisma into voting intentions in those ridings.
For instance, in the Esquimalt riding 26 per cent of respondents said he’d make the best prime minister, the highest total for any of the four leaders. Yet his party trails the NDP by 30 percentage points.
“The federal Liberal party is currently not competitive in these ridings, in spite of a seemingly high proportion of residents who regard Justin Trudeau as their preferred prime minister,” said Insights West spokesman Mario Canseco.