Truths about the war with ISIL
Archeologists and lovers of history everywhere fear ISIL, which swept into Palmyra this week, will destroy one of the world’s most romantic sets of ruins. London Daily Telegraph reporter Richard Spencer asks what we have learned from the militant group’s
1. ISIL IS NOT ON THE RUN.
Following its loss of Kobani in Syria to the Kurds and of Tikrit in Iraq in April, the United States seemed to think ISIL would implode. It hasn’t.
2. ISIL IS WELL-RUN.
An airstrike has reportedly incapacitated its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and its first deputy leader, while the Iraqis claim — unconvincingly — that its new acting leader has also been killed. A score or more other senior leaders have been killed. But its middle-ranking cadres, many former officers in the army of Saddam Hussein, are skilled military tacticians who were able to out-think both the Syrian army and, more worryingly, the U.S.-trained Iraqi security forces.
3. BASHAR ASSAD’S ARMY IS LOSING.
For years it was vaunted as “the strongest army in the Middle East” and some of his defenders in both East and West said Assad was “the only hope” for Syria. It is now clear that his demoralized army is on the run — from ISIL in the east, from Jabhat al-Nusra and other rebel groups in the northwest. It is on the defensive in the south and near Damascus.
4. THE IRAQI ARMY IS BETTER — BUT NOT MUCH SO.
Ramadi’s defenders held on longer and with more guts than they are being given credit for — they were surrounded for months, and at the end faced a devastating assault led by concerted suicide explosions each the size of the Oklahoma bombing, according to American officials quoted by the New York Times.
But promised reinforcements never arrived, and its heavy weapons were for some reason not deployed — instead, they were captured by ISIL.
5. CURRENT U.S. STRATEGY WILL NOT DEFEAT ISIL.
U.S. President Barack Obama is sure of only two things — he can fight ISIL from the air, and will minimize “boots on the ground.” But the ground forces he has agreed to arm and train — the Iraqi security forces and some “moderate” Syrian rebels — are as yet too weak to fight ISIL.
6. THE WARS ARE NOT SOLELY SECTARIAN.
Sunni tribes prepared to fight Sunni ISIL are more and more prepared to have their voice heard, and even to join forces with Shia militias previously seen as sectarian. In Syria, the city of Tadmur, where Palmyra is located, is largely Sunni but its inhabitants fled the approach of ISIL.
7. EVERYTHING HAS DEEPENED SECTARIAN DIVIDES.
The Assad regime has retrenched to its Alawite core, marginalizing Sunni members of the inner circle and government. It has been supported by Shia Iran — which has deployed its militias to mainly Shia areas.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey have given priority in their backing to Sunni Islamist rebel groups. In Iraq, the government stopped paying loyal Sunni tribal militias because they were not part of the army but has now called on Shia militias to fight.
8. ONLY MILITIAS CAN FIGHT ISIL.
Kurdish militias have defeated ISIL in northeast Syria, Islamist rebel militias have defeated them in the northwest and south, and Shia militias have defeated them in Iraq. But the Iraqi and Syrian regular armies have failed.
9. U.S.-LED COALITION AIRSTRIKES ARE VITAL.
Without strikes, the Kurds would not have saved Kobani and Iraq’s Shia militias would not have retaken Tikrit. But where ISIL has tried to make inroads outside its core territory, in southern Syria for example, it has been beaten back by other rebel groups, at least once they received weapons supplies from their Gulf backers.