No middle ground in battle for democracy

Last week’s legislative vote in Hong Kong, that vetoed an election-reform package backed by Beijing, signified just how divided people are in the Special Administrative Region (a former British colony) when it comes to the city’s political future.

The drama, which involved a walkout by supporters of the reforms moments before the vote took place, means that it is possible that Hong Kong’s next chief-executive selection process (scheduled for 2017) will revert to the previous process. That would call for a committee made up of the city’s business elites (who are seen as heavily pro-Beijing) to choose Hong Kong’s next leader.

The proposed reforms package would have given Hong Kong residents a direct vote to select their new chief executive, although the candidates would have been vetted by a committee also seen by observers as pro-Beijing.

The fear for many is that continued friction could escalate again to the point of last year’s Umbrella Movement, which paralyzed parts of Central Hong Kong, disrupted business in the city for more than two months, and lead to confrontations with police. For Hong Kong, which relies heavily on its status as a global finance and trade hub, another such disruption could have far-reaching consequences.

But neither Beijing nor prodemocracy legislators in Hong Kong appear likely to budge. The Economist reports that public opinion in the city remains close to evenly split, and there is speculation about how moderate swing voters will react in an election of legislators next year.

“If the outcome of the vote is greater tension between radical activists in Hong Kong and its leaders in Beijing who are unwilling to make any concessions ... then democrats risk losing support among moderates who fear turmoil,” the report said.

Dr. Paul Evans, a professor at UBC’s Institute of Asian Research, has visited Hong Kong twice in the last three months. He noted that last week’s veto certainly does not help in the quest for a workable middle-ground. But he added that, unless there is a rapid and dramatic escalation, Hong Kong’s business activities involving Canadian interests will not be broadly affected.

“Impact on the economy and Canada-China relations will not be positive — uncertainty never helps — but minimal unless the situation deteriorates,” Evans said. “Hong Kong’s resilience should not be underestimated.”

He added that Ottawa is almost certainly watching closely, but unlikely to become more vocal, given Beijing’s actions “don’t technically violate” Hong Kong’s Basic Law, its de-facto constitution.

“In the Canadian experience, it’s better to achieve democracy through compromise and constant pressure for ratcheting up on gains achieved, rather than more revolutionary or violent means,” he said.

For Hong Kong, which relies heavily on its status as a global finance and trade hub, another such disruption could have far-reaching consequences.