Popularity plummets as premiers become more familiar
Not one provincial premier is beloved by more than two-thirds of his or her constituents — and in fact only two of the nine surveyed even break 50 per cent approval.
Among the other findings of the Angus Reid Institute’s quarterly survey of premier popularity released Monday: one prairie premier sits atop the heap, while his next-door neighbour sits at the bottom. (Prince Edward Island was not included in the survey.)
The National Post’s Laura Hensley offers eight things to know about the institute’s latest survey:
1. Saskatchewan’s Brad Wall is still the most popular
Wall received his lowest approval rating in four years, but still remains the country’s most popular premier. Though down from his 71 per cent peak in December 2011, Wall’s current rating is still seen as impressive: “61 per cent is actually really, really high,” says Shachi Kurl, the institute’s senior vicepresident.
2. Manitoba’s Greg Selinger is the least popular premier
Selinger’s rating is at 23 per cent — less than half what it was at the height of his popularity, 48 per cent in March 2012. On the plus side: he’s up since his 17 per cent rating in December.
3. New Brunswick’s Brian Gallant is sinking
Gallant’s approval rate has dropped 13 points in three months. The New Brunswick premier fell from 40 per cent in March, to 27 per cent in June. Gallant’s sinking popularity comes with changes aimed at reducing spending. Many of the government’s decisions, including increases to nursing home fees, have been greatly unpopular with residents.
4. Alberta’s Rachel Notley is enjoying a honeymoon
The second most popular premier, Notley has a 53 per cent approval rate. But the institute suggests the rookie leader’s ratings could change — the next quarterly survey will more accurately gauge her popularity as her government settles in: “Time will tell how long her postelection honeymoon will last.”
5. Two notable Liberal premiers have fallen
Nova Scotia Premier Stephen McNeil has been declining in popularity since June 2014, when he had a 66 per cent approval rate. He now sits at 37. Ontario’s Kathleen Wynne now has the approval of less than a third of respondents — her 31 per cent rating is sharply down from 41 per cent last September.
6. Another Liberal, though, is gaining popularity
Quebec Premier Philippe Couillard has picked up four points since March, and now has a 39 per cent approval rate. Although he is rebounding, he is still far away from his 59 per cent rating in June 2014.
7. This is how it usually goes
Kurl says lower approval ratings are a natural result of governing.
She explains, “they may well be at a point in their government and mandate where they are bringing in changes that are unpopular, or where they are dealing with government headaches or related scandals.”
8. Parties are often more popular than their leaders
Kurl says that just because a premier is unpopular, it doesn’t necessarily mean his or her political party is.
“You can be someone who voted for a particular premier, who would probably vote for the party again in the next election, but you are not very happy with the job that that leader is doing in the moment,” Kurl said.