Tories open up lead heading into election
Poll suggests Conservatives got sharp popularity boost with enhanced child care benefit
A new poll shows Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the Conservatives are by far the most popular choice for Canadian voters — just weeks before an expected election call and just as federal child care cheques are being doled out.
The exclusive Mainstreet Research poll for Postmedia suggests Harper and the Tories received a sharp boost in popularity as a result of the enhanced universal child care benefit.
Among decided voters, the Conservatives lead with 38 per cent support, followed by the NDP at 27 per cent and the Liberals at 25 per cent. The Green party is at six per cent (the Bloc Québécois is at four per cent). One in five voters (20 per cent) remains undecided.
Factoring in undecided voters, 30 per cent said they would vote for the Conservatives if a federal election were held today, with the NDP at 22 per cent and Liberals at 20 per cent. Five per cent of respondents said they would support the Green party and three per cent the Bloc.
The Mainstreet telephone poll, using what’s known as interactive voice response (IVR), was conducted July 20-21 through a mixture of landlines and cellphones, and reached 5,147 respondents.
Polling began the same day the lump-sum cheques for the Conservative government’s enhanced child care benefit started landing in mailboxes and bank accounts across Canada.
“It has had a bit of a sunshine effect and given an immediate bump (for the Conservatives).
QUITO MAGGI MAINSTREAM RESEARCH, ON CHILD CARE BENEFIT CHEQUES ARRIVING
“It has had a bit of a sunshine effect and given an immediate bump (for the Conservatives),” said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research. Close to four in 10 eligible parents (38 per cent) who have been very closely following the arrival of the UCCB cheques said they would vote Conservative, but that number slips to one in four (25 per cent) among those people who indicated they did not follow the cheques at all
Also helping Tory electoral fortunes, he said, is the continued economic turmoil in Asia and Europe that has made the Conservative government look like “white knights by comparison.”
While the Tories were well ahead in voter intention, Mainstreet’s “momentum tracker” — which factors in vote strength, second-choice preferences and undecided leaners — suggests the race is much tighter, with the Conservatives only a few points ahead of the NDP and Liberals, who are tied for second.
When those factors are tossed into the mix, the Conservatives lead with 34 per cent support, closely followed by the NDP and Liberals at 30 per cent.
“If you look at the Conservative number, there’s very little room for growth. This could almost be called a peak,” Maggi said. “Both the NDP and Liberals have significant room for growth.”
The polling data show that more than half of NDP supporters would make the Liberals their second choice, and viceversa, he noted
Meanwhile, the poll shows Conservatives hold a commanding lead in Ontario among decided voters, with 45 per cent support; the Liberals are in second with 28 per cent; the NDP is at 21 per cent and Green party is at six per cent.
Among all voters in Ontario (including undecided), the Conservatives are at 35 per cent, Liberals 21 per cent, NDP at 16 per cent and Greens at five per cent.
Nearly one in four voters in Ontario (23 per cent) is undecided, meaning crucial votes remain up for grabs in the province.
In British Columbia, the NDP has a commanding lead among decided voters, with 43 per cent support, the Conservatives in second at 28 per cent, Liberals at 21 per cent and Greens at nine per cent.