Why is Russia expected to further increase its presence in Syria?
In the past few weeks, Russia has expanded its military presence in Syria, sending troops, weapons, battle tanks, air missile systems and planes — including 28 jets and 14 helicopter gunships — to support the Assad regime. Just this Tuesday, satellite images released by IHS Janes, a security and defence analysis organization, highlighted a buildup of Russian forces in the province of Latakia. The National Post asked three experts to assess the impact of Russia’s military escalation and what it may mean for Israel. Their discussions have been edited for space.
Moshe Ma’oz, professor of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies, Hebrew University and adviser to former Israeli Prime Ministers
Q What is Russia up to in Syria?
A Russia would like to deepen its hold on the eastern Mediterranean, especially in Syria. This has been an interest of Russia for centuries. Now, Russia’s main targets, as far as I understand, are to safeguard Russian bases, to help Bashar survive, to expand its hold over half of Syria and to hold back American influence in the region.
Q How does the Russian military escalation change the regional dynamic?
A For one, it helps the regime in Syria. Number two, in my opinion, Russia helps what I would call the Shia Crescent, including Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Syria. Russia would help Iran — a Shia country — to enhance its role in Syria, too. The other camp affected is the Sunni countries, including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the Emirates and Egypt. They see Iran as a big threat. Iran is expanding its hold, in Iraq especially. It has influence in Kuwait, Bahrain, Lebanon and Syria.
Q What is the impact on Israel?
A Two Jews, four views. Some people say it’s good. Why? To enhance Bashar because it can bring stability. This is a devil that we know. We can work with him. I beg to differ. Bashar is a butcher and we, with the Jewish faith, cannot work with such a killer. Also, his alliance with Iran and Hezbollah is very dangerous to Israel, more dangerous than ISIS, not only to Israel, but to the region. It also means Russia might prevent Israel from flying over Syria and attacking convoys that carry weapons to Hezbollah, which is a deadly enemy of Israel. Israel has lost here. The game is for Russia.
Q What is the worst-case scenario facing Israel?
A A combination of Iranian, Syrian and Hezbollah troops would be on the Israeli northern border and the Golan. Syria is not a strong country, but Iran, which is a super regional power heading toward nuclear capability, has declared time and again that it wants to eliminate Israel, as has Hezbollah.
Elliot Abrams, senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, former deputy national security adviser to U.S. President George W. Bush
Q To what extent does Russia’s presence affect Israel’s ability to take care of its interests and project power?
A Israel has regularly intervened in Syria to prevent arms transfers from Iran to Hezbollah. Israel’s ability to do that is significantly affected by the assets Russia is putting into Syria. Russia’s presence is a new complication. But it’s larger than that because the Russians have been out of the Middle East for 50 years since Sadat threw them out of Egypt. Now, Israelis have to ask, “Is Putin satisfied? Is this a one-time intervention?” Because there is a long-term arms supply relationship between Russia and Assad. Or, “Is this the beginning of a larger Russian effort in the Middle East?” Bessma Momani, senior fellow, Centre for International Governance Innovation and associate professor, Balsillie School of International Affairs, University of Waterloo
Q What do you think is the main impact of Russia’s military escalation in the Middle East on regional dynamics?
A I think it’s going to lead to a prolonged and lengthened Assad regime. I think it’s going to create a larger exodus of refugees. I think it will most likely cause a challenge to a Western coalition who may be battling ISIL. It may also encourage regional governments to acquire more weapons. It’s overall very negative.
Q What do you think Russia is up to over there?
A Well, I think it is, one, an attempt of the Putin government to divert attention away from the annexation of Crimea. It is an attempt by Putin to embarrass the Americans by saying that, “We are here to fight terrorism because you can’t handle it on your own.” I think it’s also an attempt to shore up the Assad regime. The Russians are going to be expecting an important role at the table because they have an airbase there and troops on the ground. Q What is the worst case scenario facing Israel? A I don’t think it’s really about Israel. It’s really the Syrian people who are most affected by Russian involvement.