Is Brad Wall good, or just lucky?
Popular premier’s fortunes appear tied to the provincial economy
The thing to understand about Saskatchewan is that it used to be the place people were from.
“If you’re an average Saskatchewanian, you’d see more of your Grade 12 class in (the bar) Cowboys in Calgary than you ever would in Saskatchewan,” says John Gormley a longtime regional radio host, author and columnist.
“That was part of your life story. You would finish Grade 12 and then finish your trades in Alberta, or you did your degree here and then moved to Alberta.
“Now, under Brad Wall, (this) doesn’t have to be a place where everybody’s from.”
Keep those words in mind as you consider this campaign ad: fireside-chat style, his collared shirt open at the top, the premier of Saskatchewan looks straight into the camera.
“When I was a graduate,” Wall says, “I remember so many of the people I knew — my roommate, one of my best friends — were simply going to be checking out job opportunities in Alberta. They just felt there was no choice, there wasn’t even an option.
“I don’t want to go back to the Saskatchewan where there was no choice for young people.”
Then the ad cuts away to the Saskatchewan Party’s logo and its campaign tag line, Keep Saskatchewan Strong.
Wall has been the face of Saskatchewan’s boom times. As the province prepares to vote Monday, a strong, third consecutive majority for the centre- right premier seems inevitable. Most polls give him a comfortable lead over Cam Broten and the New Democratic Party.
Even after two terms, Wall — who, busy campaigning, declined to be interviewed for this story — enjoys an approval rating unmatched by any provincial leader in the country.
But with the drop in resource prices, Saskatchewan’s economy has begun to turn — and the province’s finances with it.
If the breadbasket of Canada risks a return to the bad old days, we may soon have the answer to a lingering question: Is Brad Wall as good as his golden reputation, or has he just been very, very lucky?
For decades, Saskatchewan felt like a small town stretched across a vast prairie; patriots loved its rural values, its farms and its sense of community. Unfortunately, it was situated right next to oil-fuelled Alberta, where a hard-working prairie boy could make six figures hauling bitumen sands and welding pipes.
Saskatchewan’s farming economy, and its nascent oil and gas industry, could never seem to keep up. Until right around the time Brad Wall was elected.
In 2007, the year he defeated the long-ruling NDP government to become premier, the province’s commodity-driven economy really began to flourish. And it wasn’t just the growing petroleum industry driving that growth; demand for potash and grain rocketed, as well.
Suddenly, this was a Saskatchewan with swagger. People began to return, young people settled down, the province continued to grow along with the wealth.
The plain-spoken Swift Current boy in the premier’s office embodied it all perfectly. He was sworn in a few days shy of his 43rd birthday, swept to power by rural constituencies.
In 2011, Wall was re-elected with 64 per cent of the vote, 49 of the legislature’s 58 seats and the third-largest majority in the province’s history.
That result owed much to his leadership, to be sure, but he also benefited from forces beyond his control.
“( Wall) consistently points out that Saskatchewan has been very blessed with tremendous resources, and at this point in history, there have been tremendous prices for those resources,” says Todd MacKay, Prairie director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation.
“Those are blessings that no one controls.”
As for what has been in Wall’s control, his fiscal legacy is mixed.
By 2010, Saskatchewan was in the red. The bleeding was staunched by 2013, but once again the ledger is precariously close to red ink.
The late-spring snowy hustings of this Saskatchewan election campaign have produced the usual list of complaints — highways need fixing, communities need better roads, seniors and students want funding.
Broten’s New Democrats have targeted Wall over a suspicious deal in which private investors made millions on the sale of land to the province.
For his part, Wall invokes the bad-old days of NDP rule, the schools and hospitals closed under previous regimes.
But it’s been a campaign without drama, its outcome all but assured.
A third term in office would give Wall a record that would begin to compete with that of the fabled Tommy Douglas. Whether or not he would succeed as easily in gaining a fourth mandate — especially if the economy continues on its current trajectory — is beginning to look like an open question.
Wall) consistently points out that Saskatchewan has been very blessed with tremendous resources, and at this point in history, there have been tremendous prices for those resources. Those are blessings that noone controls.
TODD MacKAY
CANADIAN TAXPAYERS FEDERATION