Populist polarizes Philippines
n exuberantly vulgar populist appears poised to win Monday’s presidential election.
Rodrigo Duterte has opened up an 11-percentagepoint lead in the last polls conducted before the official ballot by depicting himself as a strongman who will tackle political corruption and crimes, such as drug trafficking.
The 71-year-old mayor of Davao, in the troubled Mindanao region in the southern Philippines, has an even bigger lead in a “Big Gulp” race organized by the country’s largest convenience store chain. “Undecided” is running a distant second.
In the relatively affluent seaside town of Olongapo, about 54 per cent of the soft drinks bought at 7-Eleven store fountains bore Duterte’s image and name — more than double the number for any of his four rivals, including the early favourite, Grace Poe, whose candidacy has been bedevilled by claims she renounced her Philippine citizenship when she lived in the U.S.
There have been colourful presidents here before. They include dictator Ferdinand Marcos, who with his wife Imelda was forced into exile in 1981. A more recent example was actor Joseph Estrada, who was eventually impeached for gambling and other crimes.
“This is without question most polarized election in the most recent history,” said political scientist Richard Heydarian, whose writings frequently appear in international publications.
“Duterte is cowboyish and a womanizer, but one of the differences between this guy and the other populists who have been president is that this guy curses about his opponents. There is nothing to compare with his foul mouth.”
“What is unusual is that Duterte is popular with the middle classes, not just with those below the poverty line,” he added. “Some have likened his rise to that of Mussolini who rallied the middle class and had the peasantry behind him.”
Duterte has boasted of shooting a fellow student at law school for racist remarks about his home region (the victim survived).
Human rights groups also say he has not properly explained the deaths of up to 700 people in what may have been extra-judicial slayings during the decades he was in power or a prosecutor in Davao.
Nevertheless, Duterte has reportedly just won the support of Iglesia ni Cristo, an influential Christian group whose three million members tend to do what they are told by the church leadership.
In a unscientific street poll taken this week in Margot Barangay, a bucolic village about 100 kilometres north of Manila, Duterte had the support of about half of those spoken with. The rest were split between the other candidates.
“Everyone here says, ‘Duterte, Duterte. I think he will win here big,’ ” said Anastacia Cupidos, a local councillor in the barangay, village.
But, she added, “I will not vote for him because it is like he talks before he thinks.”
Midwife Rustica Bacain said she was backing Duterte because of his tough stance on crime. “For me, he is brave and intelligent,” she said.
One of Duterte’s catchier campaign applause lines is: “Let’s kill all the criminals.” Another is: “I am going to fix this sh--ty life.”
Cupidos might have been thinking of Duterte’s remarks last month when he joked he would have liked to have had the first chance to gang rape an Australian missionary who was gang raped and murdered.
Such highly controversial remarks have attracted global opprobrium. But his support at home has only grown since then.
Elections in the Philippines are raucous affairs that invariably include a mountain of allegations about vote buying and outright electoral fraud.
The slight favourite to become vice-president is the Marcoses’ Oxford and Wharton-educated son, Bongbong. His candidacy seems to be about setting himself up for a presidential run in six years’ time.
It is anybody’s guess when the results for the presidential race — as well as scores of other contests for everything down to the barangay — will become known.
Electoral officials claim the first-past-the post results for the presidency will be released within 24 hours. It took two weeks to declare the outgoing president, Benigno Aquino, the winner six years ago. In 1992, it took 40 days.
Counting machines have already been hacked this year. Some absentee voters have claimed their votes were not tabulated or they had been changed.
Another question is whether unusually hot weather, even for the Philippines, with temperatures in the high 30s, will keep some older voters at home. A second imponderable is whether Duterte is sufficiently organized to get his supporters out, except in Mindanao, where he is expected to win 80 per cent of the vote.
Duterte presents himself as “an autocrat and a saviour who can solve all the problems,” Heydarian said. “Win or lose, the Philippines will enter a new era of uncertainty after six years of economic growth. If Duterte wins the markets will be jittery.”