Airlines on edge as pilot shortage looms

After coping with terrorism, bankruptcies and consolidation, the largest U.S. airlines are facing a new problem: They may start running out of pilots in as soon as three years.

That looming pilot deficit will soar to 15,000 by 2026, according to a study by the University of North Dakota’s Aviation Department, as more captains reach the mandatory retirement age of 65 and fewer young people choose commercial aviation as a profession. And that’s in an industry where captains on the biggest international jets average more than US$200,000 a year — with some pushing US$300,000.

A pilot shortage is already the bane of the often lowpaying regional carriers that ferry passengers from smaller airports to hubs operated by American, Delta and other major airlines. That’s worrisome for the major carriers because they typically use the smaller operators as a pipeline for hiring.

“That is one of the things in my job I get to worry about every day and when I go to bed at night,” said Greg Muccio, a senior manager at Southwest Airlines Co. “The biggest problem is a general lack of interest in folks pursuing this as a career anymore. That’s what puts us in the most jeopardy.”

Airlines are responding by changing hiring requirements, boosting signing bonuses at regional carriers they own and partnering with flight schools and university aviation programs. Muccio spends some of his time trying to interest college, high school and even elementary students in an aviation career, while he’s working to extend the biggest three-year expansion of pilot hiring in Southwest’s history.

The top three reasons would-be pilots are changing their career plans are the cost of flight training and certification, low pay at regional carriers and a 2013 regulatory change that mandated a sixfold increase in flight hours required to become a first officer, according to a study released last year by the University of North Dakota and the University of Nebraska- Omaha.

Until recently, few pilots were willing to recommend the career, even to their own children, said Louis Smith, president of FAPA.aero, a career and financial planner for professional pilots.

“That mood is changing,” Smith said, as larger airlines have become profitable and picked up hiring to support expansion.

“Still, the cost of learning to fly and the risk and impact of failure is a major impediment to building the pool of pilots.”

At United Continental Holdings Inc., a new career path program designed “to counter the potential shortage of qualified pilots,” involves two regional carriers and a flight-training school, according to a memo from the airline. The airline will hire 650 pilots this year and as many as 900 in 2017.