THERE WAS BASKETBALL WITH YAO MING AND THERE WAS MONTREAL SMOKED MEAT, BUT AS THE PRIME MINISTER CONTINUED HIS VISIT TO CHINA, THE ISSUE OF SECURITY IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA STILL HASN’T COME UP.
SHANGHAI • As basketball with Yao Ming, Montreal smoked meat and a promotional event for Manulife-Sinochem kept Prime Minister Justin Trudeau busy Friday, questions remain about his strategic vision for China, with some suggesting a military presence in the Asia-Pacific region would give Canada more teeth.
During this second, commercially focused leg of the trip, Trudeau and ministers Chrystia Freeland and Bill Morneau have been expanding Canada’s financial and economic ties to China with photo ops aplenty.
But regional security issues at the forefront of the international agenda — and likely to be discussed at the Group of 20 summit in Hangzhou Sunday and Monday — still haven’t come up.
Some are highlighting what they see as Canada’s responsibility to be strong, clear and overt about China’s behaviour in the South China Sea, one of the world’s major trade routes.
China has long claimed a majority of the sea, which also borders Vietnam, Taiwan, the Philippines, Brunei and Malaysia. But international boundaries established by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, based on distance from shorelines, were upheld by an international appeals court in The Hague this July.
The U.S. navy has been patrolling international waters in the area. It has recently been pressuring another Canadian ally, Australia, to do the same.
Canadian military procurement remains a touchy subject at home.
But Canada could send a strong message to its western partners by mobilizing its navy to have more presence in the region, too, suggested David Mulroney, Canada’s ambassador to China from 2009 to 2012.
“We’d have more credibility if we had more presence in the Asia-Pacific,” he said.
Helping to train Chinese forces, contributing to humanitarian missions and anti- piracy initiatives all show that Canada wants to work with China but also has expectations, Mulroney explained. “Ships and navies are great ambassadors.”
Canada’s July statement on the South China Sea, while it made clear that Ottawa cares about international law and a de-escalation of regional tensions, did not specifically call on China to halt its activities — something that some see as tacit consent. Paired with the decision to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, some are seeing a strategic shift away from the United States.
Foreign Affairs Minister Stéphane Dion, who accompanied Trudeau to Beijing, did not make himself avail- able to media there and did not respond to requests for interviews while continuing diplomatic forays into Southeast Asia.
Dealing with China has always been a delicate balancing act, notes Paul Evans, a specialist in Asian and trans-Pacific affairs at the University of British Columbia.
Canada’s position on the South China Sea is not as black and white as that of other countries, he said, not least because, with a China increasingly interested in the Arctic, Canada has to worry about protecting its own waters.
“Ottawa avoids simple characterizations of the conflict,” he said. But there is an opportunity to find ways to help manage a tense issue.
For example, Canadian fisheries’ expertise may be helpful as control over the waters could have food security implications. “There will soon be more submarines in the (South China Sea) than fish,” Evans said.
One source close to the Trudeau government suggested there has not been a public venue where it would be “natural” to raise the topic, but regional security issues will have been discussed in meetings with Premier Li Keqiang and President Xi Jinping this week.
“What happens between the meetings is more important than what happens in the actual meetings,” Mulroney said. “There will be difficult conversations behind closed doors.” China’s interest is in getting Canada to “toe the line” on the South China Sea.
Mulroney said Stephen Harper’s government, which Trudeau and the Chinese have chastised this week, blew hot and cold with China — but was good at establishing work plans for officials to handle between summits.
Trudeau has an opportunity to start a more regular relationship, Mulroney said, but his government needs to go beyond some of this week’s prominent themes — the economy, trade, climate change — to include “serious talk about security.”
Making the prime minister’s job more challenging is a Canadian public concerned about how the Chinese state behaves. Though Trudeau has called on China to work harder on its human rights record, some see his words as empty.
“Most Canadians … tend to view China in black and white,” said Gordon Houlder, director of the University of Alberta’s China Institute, but really it’s “a million shades of grey.”
The country has made enormous progress in many areas, lifting millions out of poverty with incredible economic growth — but it remains an authoritarian state that’s brutal on its political opposition. It can be hard to reconcile the two, Houlder said.
Before the G20, Trudeau will face pressure to make substantive statements on international issues to counter an image that his China visit is all smiles and Pierre Trudeau references — and fears that Canada is being played by a non-democracy concerned only about its own gain.
WHAT HAPPENS BETWEEN THE MEETINGS IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN WHAT HAPPENS IN THE ACTUAL MEETINGS. THERE WILL BE DIFFICULT CONVERSATIONS BEHIND CLOSED DOORS. — DAVID MULRONEY, FORMER AMBASSADOR TO CHINA