Number crunching explains Blue Jays’ offensive slump
Statistics show a considerable drop-off in offensive markers from the 2015 season, Ken Fidlin writes.
Top three reasons why the Blue Jay offence is a shadow of its former self: THE BOTTOM OF THE ORDER
One of the most important ingredients to the Blue Jays’ offensive recipe that produced 891 runs in 2015 was the contribution made by the bottom of the order.
The bottom-three spots in Toronto’s batting lineup were filled at various times by Ryan Goins, Kevin Pillar, Ben Revere, Danny Valencia, Chris Colabello, Ezequiel Carrera, Josh Thole, Dioner Navarro, Russell Martin, Justin Smoak, Darwin Barney and Devon Travis. All of those different personalities and skill sets became a powerful weapon.
The 7-8-9 spots in the order accounted for 461 hits in 1,709 atbats and a .270 batting average. The group had 144 extra-base hits, including 42 homers and 203 RBI. They stole 33 bases and scored 250 runs. The OBP was a more-than-respectable .328 to go with a slugging percentage of .403, thus creating an impressive OPS of .735. They accounted for 146 walks and 343 strikeouts.
This year’s group at the bottom of the order has included many of the same names with the addition of Michael Saunders, Junior Lake, Darrell Ceciliani and, of late, Melvin Upton, Jr. Without Navarro for the bulk of the season, Thole ended up with many more at-bats and has hit just .155.
That means the 2016 version of the bottom of the order has fared poorly. In 1,555 at-bats, they have more than 100 fewer hits (350). The batting average is a puny .225, the OBP is .277 and the OPS sits at .610, a full 125 points worse than last year. Where the club really feels the pain is on the bottom line: 90 fewer runs and 70 fewer RBIs from those three places in the batting order.
RUNS WITHOUT HOMERS
The perception of the 2015 Blue Jays was that they lived and died by the home run. That is false.
The 2015 Blue Jays hit 232 homers, but the truth is that home runs played a part in only 41.6 per cent of their runs. Home runs accounted for 371 of their 891 runs, which means they scored 520 runs without the home-run ball. That is more homerless runs than any other team in baseball in 2015.
That hitting ability has eluded the 2016 Jays, even though many of the same veteran hitters are on the team. During spring training, they were looking at a full season of Troy Tulowitzki, plus the returns of Saunders and Devon Travis after injury-riddled seasons.
Toronto’s reliance on the home run has stifled its ability to score in other ways. They have scored 695 runs, and home runs have accounted for 46.3 per cent of them. To this point in the season, they have scored 373 runs without the use of the long ball. That’s 2.57 runs per game. In 2015, they scored an average of 3.21 runs/ game without a home run.
Another factor has been the elevated strikeout rate in 2016. The Jays are averaging 8.45 strikeouts a game. A year ago, they were among the lowest teams in strikeouts per game at 7.10.
LATE AND CLOSE
Hanging on to leads has been a big problem for the Blue Jays.
It isn’t just bullpen failures. One of the hallmarks of the 2015 Jays was their ability to add on. his season it hasn’t worked out that way. Toronto has outscored its opponents 390-311 in the first five innings of games this year, which has allowed them to lead 81 times, but have lost 20 of those games. Conversely, they have trailed in 44 games after five innings and only won 11 of those games.
Fifteen times, they have led into the seventh inning and lost. Seven times they have led going into the eighth inning and lost.
The offence has to bear the blame for some of those losses, especially when they failed to add on runs in games they were already leading.