Clinton, Trump in dead heat ahead of first debate
NEW POLLS SHOW THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE IS A VIRTUAL DEAD HEAT, HEIGHTENING ANTICIPATION FOR MONDAY’S CRUCIAL FACEOFF
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will meet Monday night for their first debate in a virtual dead heat in the race for the White House, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, with Clinton’s August advantage erased and Trump still facing doubts about his qualifications and temperament.
Likely voters split 46 per cent for Clinton vs. 44 per cent for Trump, with Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson at five per cent and Green Party nominee Jill Stein at one per cent. Among registered voters, Clinton and Trump are tied at 41 per cent, with Johnson at seven per cent and Stein at two per cent.
In a two-way matchup between the major-party nominees, Clinton tops Trump by 49 per cent to 47 per cent among likely voters, and the two are tied at 46 per cent among all registered voters. Clinton’s twopoint edge among likely voters, in both the four-way and two-way ballot tests, is within the survey’s 4.5 percentage-point margin of sampling error.
The findings underscore how much the presidential contest has tightened in recent weeks, after Clinton emerged from the two national conventions with a clear lead and with Trump on the defensive. In early September, Clinton led Trump by five points among likely voters. In early August, she led by eight points.
As Clinton has run into turbulence, Trump has worked to present himself as a more disciplined candidate in an effort to attract more support from voters who traditionally have supported Republican nominees.
The tightened race is a reminder of how much will be at stake Monday night at Hofstra University in New York when the two meet before what could be one of the largest television audiences ever for a presidential debate.
Eight in 10 voters say they plan to watch Monday’s debate, and 44 per cent expect Clinton to win vs. 34 per cent expecting Trump to come out ahead.
Most Americans say they are following the campaign diligently, but a higher percentage of Trump supporters appear to be paying close attention than Clinton backers. Also, more Clinton backers say they are not registered to vote, which adds to pressure on her team to get them registered and to the polls.
Another potentially worrying sign for Clinton is that she is getting a smaller share of voters who supported Obama in 2012 than Trump is getting among those who backed Romney.
The race between Clinton and Trump continues to be defined along lines of gender, race and education. Men and women are mirror opposites in their preferences, with 54 per cent of men backing Trump and 55 per cent of women supporting Clinton. The racial gap is far larger. White voters back Trump by 53 per cent to 37 per cent; nonwhite voters back Clinton by 69 per cent to 19 per cent.
But educational attainment among white voters continues to be the critical indicator. Trump leads Clinton by more than 4 to 1 among white men without college degrees, and by a smaller ratio among white women without college degrees and among collegeeducated white men. Clinton leads Trump by 57 per cent to 32 per cent among collegeeducated white women.
Trump’s support among white men has increased, and one key to his possible success will be maximizing that support, among collegeeducated and non-collegeeducated white men alike, while making appeals to college-educated white women.
Both candidates continue to be viewed negatively by the voters. Currently, 39 per cent of registered voters have a favourable impression of Clinton, while 57 per cent have an unfavourable impression. For Trump, the results are comparable: 38 per cent see him positively, 57 per cent negatively. That unfavourability number, however, is five points lower than it was just before the two parties’ national conventions in July.
Trump’s major obstacle still appears to be the fact that majorities do not see him as qualified to be president or possessing presidential temperament. On those qualities, 53 per cent of registered voters say he is not qualified, 58 per cent say he lacks the temperament to serve effectively, and 55 per cent say he does not know enough about the world to serve effectively.