Japan’s envoy holds out hope for TPP despite U.S. retreat
Japan’s ambassador to Canada says the Trans-Pacific Partnership still isn’t dead, and wants other countries in the deal to ratify it, despite the United States’ decision to withdraw.
“Our position hasn’ t changed yet ,” Kenjiro Monji said in an interview. “There are some concerns over protectionism in the world... If we stop here then the momentum to pursue free trade will be stopped.”
Despite intense lobbying from Japan and others, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order Monday officially removing the U.S. from the TPP, citing concerns that multilateral deals were harming American industries.
After seven years of negotiations, the new president’s move appears to be a final blow for the controversial trade and regulatory deal, which never entered into force but was signed by the U.S., Japan, Canada, Mexico, Australia, New Zealand and six other countries.
“It’s not the death of multilateral agreements, but they’re not going to be in fashion for a while,” said Daniel Schwanen, vice-president of research at the C.D. Howe Institute.
The move came as Justin Trudeau and his cabinet met in Calgary this week, which featured a visit from Stephen Schwarzman, in charge of Trump’s Strategic and Policy Forum.
Schwarzman told Canadians Monday not to be “enormously worried” about changes to trade policy under Trump, although the administration has promised to take protectionist measures and renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement between the U.S., Canada and Mexico.
Mexico was signalling Monday it would seek bilateral deals in the absence of the TPP. Its president, Enrique Pena Nieto, gave a speech that reportedly included a promise to “immediately” seek bilateral deals with TPP partners to “diversify” his country’s trade portfolio. Australia’s trade minister went so far as to suggest the TPP countries could ask China to join the deal instead. But Japan isn’t ready to move on that just yet. Tokyo notified TPP countries last Friday they had finished the full ratification process in their own legislature. Getting other countries to ratify the deal, Monji said, would send a strong signal to Trump that the TPP retains strategic and economic value.
“We intend to talk to the United States through various occasions, tenaciously, and with patience, about the value of the strategic and economic value of TPP agreement,” Monji said. “What we hope is countries other than United States will also pursue the ratification of the TPP so that other countries also will give a strong message to the United States.”
The Trudeau government never declared a final position on whether it would ratify the deal. However, Alex Lawrence, a spokesman for Trade Minister François-Philippe Champagne, said Monday the TPP “cannot enter into force without the United States.”
Because most of the TPP was negotiated around specific U.S. asks, TPP countries would likely want to change many of the deal’s parameters if they decided to go ahead without America.
Meanwhile, Schwanen said there is “no way” the U.S. would re-sign the existing document — calling into question whether ratification would just be a waste of time.
Even in the unlikely case of a Trump-led renegotiation of the TPP, NAFTA talks would need to conclude first, Schwanen said, since changes to the North American agreement would affect measures taken under the TPP.
And if a TPP renegotiation does eventually happen, Trump “will want to put his stamp on it, and it won’t be pretty for the other partners.”
There are some concerns over protectionism ... If we stop here then the momentum to pursue free trade will be stopped.