Mexican cement maker poised to profit from Trump’s plan for border wall
U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans to build a Mexican border wall are boosting the prospects of builders and material suppliers from Alabama to Frankfurt, but there may be no bigger winner than a giant cement maker based in Mexico.
Cemex SAB would be one of the companies best-positioned to profit from a wall that could cost US$15 billion or more as it has operations along both sides of the border. Cemex’s share price jumped as much as 2.6 percent Wednesday and is the best performing among its peers this year, with its stock up 18 per cent as of Tuesday, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Sonia Baldeira. The outlook for its U.S. business has also been aided by Trump’s plan to spend as much as US $500 billion on roads, bridges, tunnels and airports.
“We are fairly optimistic on the company’s U.S. operations,” Barclays analyst Benjamin Theurer wrote in a note to clients, naming Cemex the top regional pick. “We expect a Trump-boosted pick up in volume.”
The possibility of profit for a south-of-the-border industrial giant, the largest cement maker in the Americas, shows the tight interweaving of the U.S. and Mexican economies. The U.S. is Cemex’s biggest market, representing a fifth of its revenue last quarter, and a windfall from the wall would help complete its comeback from nearbankruptcy after the recession.
The Mexican peso’s 12.6 per cent depreciation over the past 12 months would have meant bad news for Cemex, as most of its debt is dollar-denominated. The story seems to have changed as Trump moves to fulfil promises made during his campaign.
The Republican painted a picture of a nation beset by undocumented immigrants, and said only a physical barrier—paid-for-by-Mexico—could end the onslaught. The plan didn’t recognize that illegal entries have fallen and that many undocumented immigrants arrive legally, but overstay their visas.
Trump’s statements set off widespread fury in his own nation and beyond, with Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto saying “of course” his country wouldn’t pay. On Wednesday, Cemex spokesman Jorge Perez declined to comment on whether the company would be involved in the wall’s construction.
In his inauguration speech, Trump also proposed avast re make of crumbling U.S. infrastructure. “He is going to deliver,” Commerzbank AG analyst Norbert Kretlow said by phone. “The possibility for infrastructure investments is now a lot higher.”
Shares in materials suppliers reflected optimism that a Trump construction boom is ahead.
Birmingham-based Vulcan Materials Co ., the biggest U.S. sand and gravel supplier by market value, advanced 1.74 per cent in New York. Cement makers Martin Marietta Materials Inc. and Eagle Materials Inc. also rose, extending gains that began after Trump’s election. Germany’s Heidelberg-Cement AG, which has said it would benefit from a border wall, surged the most in two months.
The wall’s cost could vary widely depending on its size and the materials used, said Garik Shmois, an analyst at Longbow Research who covers Martin Marietta, Vulcan, Cemex and other building-materials makers. At the mid point of Sh mo is’ s estimate, the wall would use about US$1.2 billion of cement, concrete and aggregates.
“So many companies have exposure around the border that it would be divided up fairly evenly,” said Shmois. “No one company is going to be disproportionately impacted by this.”
Because moving all that gravel requires heavy machinery, shares of equipment makers have risen as well. For instance, Caterpillar Inc., the biggest manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, climbed 16 per cent since the election and gained 2.3 per cent Wednesday.