WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN
Grand Slam title eludes Raonic
It’s generally easier to win a major tennis title when Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic crash out before the quarter-finals. Until last week, that hadn’t happened since the 2013 French Open, which Murray sat out altogether.
That’s why Milos Raonic may come to rue this Australian Open as a golden opportunity fumbled. Raonic has never beaten Djokovic, and is 3-9 lifetime against Murray. But as the No. 3 seed in Melbourne, his path to Canada’s first Grand Slam tennis title appeared mostly clear when the world’s top two players were upset in the early rounds.
Instead, the champion will be Rafael Nadal, the man who defeated Raonic in the quarterfinals, or Roger Federer. Together, they have combined with Djokovic and Murray to lord over the ATP for the better part of the 21st century. Their convergence — four players great not only in the context of their era, but of alltime — is unparalleled.
How, then, can Raonic pierce an entirely healthy Big Four? What elements must conspire for him to break through?
In simple terms, he’ll either have to rise to the occasion and beat his tormentors at their best, or be sharper when presented with good fortune — just like these one-time major winners.
2014: MARIN CILIC U.S. Open — 14th seed
Since 2010, only two men have outfoxed the Big Four to win a major title: Stan Wawrinka, who has won three, and the spindly Croatian who prevailed at Flushing Meadows in 2014. Cilic’s U.S. Open title was partly the product of luck: Nadal, the defending champion, sat out with a wrist injury, and Cilic avoided late-round matchups with No. 1 Djokovic, No. 3 Wawrinka and No. 4 David Ferrer when all three were upset.
Still, Cilic handled seeded opponents Kevin Anderson and Gilles Simon to reach the quarter-finals, where he bested No. 6 seed Tomas Berdych in straight sets. His semifinal victory over No. 2 Federer — 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 — remains the most impressive of his career.
In the final, Cilic swept the surging, yet winded Kei Nishikori, who had toppled Raonic, Wawrinka and Djokovic in consecutive matches, but needed 14 sets to do so.
2009: JUAN MARTIN DEL POTRO U.S. Open — sixth seed
Aside from Murray, no male player has fared better at the Summer Games than del Potro, who earned bronze at London 2012 and silver last summer in Rio. But the Argentine was no more than a promising upstart when he arrived in New York in 2009.
Del Potro, boasting a semifinal appearance from that year’s French Open, matched that milestone with five straight comfortable wins. His largest victory came in the semi against No. 3 Nadal, then a six-time Slam winner: 6-2, 6-2, 6-2. In the final, del Potro faced the No. 1 seed near the very top of his game: Federer, winner of two majors that season and 14 of 23 over six years — including the last five U.S. Opens.
No matter. Del Potro outslugged Federer in two tiebreakers, erasing a one-set deficit each time, then cruised to shocking victory in the fifth frame. More than anyone this century, he stands out for confronting multiple heavyweights head-on and winning the title. Del Potro could well have challenged the Big Four in ensuing seasons were it not for a series of wrist injuries.
2004: GASTON GAUDIO French Open — unseeded
Before Nadal won his first French Open in 2005 — and proceeded to claim nine of the next 10 — Roland Garros was the last bastion for non-legendary pros seeking a major title. Clay-court whizzes Albert Costa and Juan Carlos Ferrero won their only Slams there in 2002 and 2003.
Gaudio had never even made a major quarter-final when he caught fire in Paris. He ousted the No. 14 seed in the second round, the No. 12 in the quarters and the No. 8 in the semis. His last opponent was clay specialist Guillermo Coria, the third seed; Gaudio stormed back from two sets down, staved off two championship points and won the deciding frame 8-6.
Like Cilic a decade later, Gaudio profited from upsets beyond his control: No. 4 Ferrero lost in the second round, and No. 1 Federer fell in the third.
2003: ANDY RODDICK U.S. Open — fourth seed
It would be reasonable to conclude Roddick’s timing couldn’t have been better. Before he dropped four straight major finals to a certain Swiss foe, the American won his only Slam on home court in 2003.
Roddick didn’t have to face his soon-to-be recurring nemesis in New York; Federer, the second seed, lost to No. 13 David Nalbandian in the fourth round. Instead, Roddick beat four unseeded players, swept No. 12 Sjeng Schalken in the quarter-finals and outlasted Nalbandian in a five-set semi. He hoisted the trophy on the strength of a straight-set win over No. 3 Ferrero, who stopped Andre Agassi, the top seed, a round earlier.
The 2003 Open was a rare opening; it came after the last of Agassi’s eight majors and before Federer won 11 of the next 12 Australian, Wimbledon and U.S. crowns.
1991: MICHAEL STICH Wimbledon — sixth seed
Not unlike the current state of affairs, major tennis titles usually rotated between four sets of hands in the late 1980s and early 1990s: Stefan Edberg (six career championships), Boris Becker (six), Ivan Lendl (eight) and Jim Courier (four) — plus Agassi, who won his first Slam in 1992. One year earlier, these five titans were seeded first through fifth, respectively, at Wimbledon.
But Stich, a 22-year-old German who reached the French Open semifinals weeks earlier, braved a perilous draw to seize the title. He dispatched four unranked opponents before sweeping Courier in the quarters.
From there, Stich knocked Edberg from the tournament in four sets and calmly dismantled three-time Wimbledon champ Becker in the final: 6-4, 7-6, 6-4.