POINTS TO PONDER IF B.C. ELECTION RESULT IS CLOSE
If voters elect a minority government, several interesting scenarios in play
Amid speculation that Election 2017 might produce a close or inconclusive result, some questions, frequently asked and otherwise:
Why do news reports say 45 ■ seats is a practical necessity, even though 44 would constitute a majority in the 87-seat legislature?
The higher number recognizes the role of the Speaker, presiding officer of the house. The Speaker is elected by secret ballot of all members and normally comes from ranks of the winning party. But she or he does not vote except to break ties, and then, where at all possible, to permit further debate among MLAs. Scarcely a recipe to expedite proceedings in a busy legislative agenda.
So to minimize the tiebreaking role of the speaker, the bare minimum seat count for majority governments is generally regarded as a majority plus one.
What, then, is a working
■ majority?
Cabinet ministers need to be away on government business and all members can be idled by serious illness or family tragedy. Pairing, where members on both sides agree to tit-for-tat absences, has not worked well in the take-no-prisoners arena of the B.C. house.
Governments only need to carry the day on confidence motions and budgets to survive. But to minimize the risk of embarrassing losses on procedural votes and the like, governments generally need a working majority of, say, five seats.
When was the last time B.C. ■ had a minority government?
Not many voters under the age of 75 are likely to recall this, but the 1952 B.C. election followed the breakup of the then-Liberal-Conservative coalition government and was conducted under a complex system of transferable votes.
When the multiple rounds of ballot counting were complete, the upstart Social Credit party was awarded 19 seats and the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation (precursor of the NDP) 18. The remaining 11 seats were distributed to the remnants of the coalition and a onemember Labour party.
The lieutenant-governor of the day called on Social Credit to form a government under W.A.C. Bennett. His fledging administration survived less than a year, but in the subsequent election he won a majority.
One of his first acts was to repeal the transferable vote. He would go on to occupy the premier’s office for a record 20 years.
What happens if no party
■ wins a majority of seats this time?
The incumbent premier generally has first crack at forming a government and calling the legislature into session. Presuming Clark and the Liberals finish short of a majority but ahead in the seat count, they might try to govern for a time.
In the event of being reduced to second place, Clark would probably forgo the likelihood of being defeated in the house and instead recommend Lt.- Gov. Judith Guichon call on the party with the most seats.
There might also be a period of brokerage where the first- and second-place parties tried to work out a deal for support from the third.
Such arrangements are risky for the junior partners, as they tend to lose ground in the following election. After four years in coalition with the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats were almost wiped out in the 2015 election in the U.K.
The safer scenario for a party holding the balance of power is to support the minority government for a time, without becoming wedded too closely to its agenda or leadership. The usual life span for a minority government in this country being 18 to 24 months before another election is called.
When was the last time a
■
B.C. election produced a wildcard scenario?
The year was 1991. The Social Credit government of the day had overstayed its welcome after 16 years in office (ahem) and the New Democrats were preparing to take power after 16 years in opposition (ahem, ahem). Then the B.C. Liberals surged from also-ran status to a strong second-place finish in a matter of days on the strength of a strong showing in the televised debate by then-leader Gordon Wilson.
Green party Leader Andrew Weaver would not be human if such a scenario does not play out in the back of his mind at least once in a while. At the very least, a strong showing in the upcoming radio and TV debates should give him a shot at official party status in the house.
What does it take for a
■ party to gain official status in the B.C. legislature and why does it matter?
The B.C. Constitution Act dictates that “a recognized political party” is “represented in the legislative assembly by four or more members.”
Recognition matters because the party will then have access to additional resources for staffing and research and a salary top-up for key players. The leader draws an additional $26,000 a year atop the basic MLA salary of $104,000. The party house leader, whip and caucus chair each get an extra $10,000.
Readers may recall how a mean-spirited premier Gordon Campbell applied the four-seat rule to deny recognition to New Democrats Joy MacPhail and Jenny Kwan as official Opposition following the 2001 election.
But politics could dictate different treatment if the Greens score any kind of breakthrough May 9. Were Weaver to fall short of the needed four seats, the winning party could choose to amend the legislative threshold or simply award the Greens additional resources anyway.
Pure speculation at this point. But that’s one of the idle pleasures of the early phase of the campaign.
The safer scenario for a party holding the balance of power is to support the minority government for a time, without becoming wedded too closely.