World champs look like lovable losers once more
A month and a half into season, there’s no sugar-coating the Cubs’ subpar record
The Chicago Cubs woke up Monday in fourth place in the National League Central and a game under .500, at 18-19. They are 3.5 games behind the first-place St. Louis Cardinals and nine games behind their pace of a year ago, when they were 27-10 through 37 games.
For a long time, the Cubs wondered whether there would be a hangover from last fall’s World Series title, but hangovers don’t generally last for six weeks.
It isn’t just one thing ailing the Cubs. They recently endured a streak of seven straight games in which they committed at least one error. Their defensive efficiency has gone from first in the majors in 2016 to 21st this year. They are hitting an NL-low .214 with runners in scoring position. Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber and Addison Russell are all flirting with the Mendoza line. Of the eight members of their starting lineup, only Kris Bryant has an OPS above .750, and he missed the past three games with injury. They have scored just six runs in their past four games.
The Cubs are starting a 10-game homestand Tuesday, but they are just 7-9 at Wrigley Field this year.
Still, the biggest culprit in the Cubs’ season-long slog through mediocrity has been starting pitching. The top four members of their vaunted 2016 rotation — Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, John Lackey and Kyle Hendricks — have all regressed, with gains in ERA ranging from around one run, in the case of Lester, to around two and a half runs, in the case of Arrieta.
“Starting pitching drives the engine,” Cubs manager Joe Maddon told reporters. “When you’re doing that right, everything else has a better opportunity or chance.”
Starting rotations often experience a decline in the year following a World Series run, with the added workloads and reduced recovery time exacting a toll.
Arrieta is by far the most worrisome of their starters. His ERA has gone from 1.77 in 2015, when he won the NL Cy Young Award, to 3.10 in 2016 to 5.44 this year.
Over the off-season, it was fashionable to ponder whether the Cubs might have the makings of a dynasty. But now, it is fair to wonder whether this group can turn it around in 2017, or if the Cubs need to make some changes.