CLIMATE PROGRESS ISN’T CHEAP
It’s said the devil is in the details, which may explain why the NDP’s climate plan released Wednesday is long on aspirations about cutting B.C.’s greenhouse-gas emissions but short on many specifics about how that will be done — especially about what it will cost average British Columbians.
The plan calls for large cuts to emissions, especially in industry, transportation and housing that is expected to achieve three-quarters of the targeted reductions. But how to achieve the remaining 25 per cent will be revealed in 18 to 24 months, the government said. Many people will likely be shocked about what fighting climate change will cost them once Victoria starts legislating significant and expensive changes to their energy consumption and in new taxes, as well as in offering incentives to people and businesses to lower their carbon footprints.
The history of government attempts to cut greenhouse gases is generally one of failure, largely because politicians know that insisting on change that raises people’s costs significantly to fight global warming isn’t popular. Consider recent Canadian promises.
At the 1988 Toronto Conference, which first put climate change on the global agenda, Ottawa backed a call to cut the world’s carbondioxide emissions by 20 per cent from 1988 levels by 2005. Instead, Canada’s emissions grew by nearly 25 per cent, rising from about 600 megatonnes of CO2 annually to 738 in 2005.
Under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which Canada later abandoned, Canada committed to cutting greenhouse gases by six per cent below 1990 levels, from just over 600 megatonnes to under 500 by 2012. Instead, they rose to 716.
A similar pattern followed after the 2009 Copenhagen Accord (Canada agreed to cut greenhouse gases by 17 per cent from 2005 levels by 2020) and the 2015 Paris Agreement (30 per cent below 2005 levels). Canada’s greenhouse gases hit 722 megatons in 2015 and are expected to exceed 800 by 2030.
More significantly, the world’s total CO2 output increased by 60 per cent from 1990 to 2013 — to 35.84 billion tonnes from 22.35 billion tonnes. Canada’s share in 2013 was 1.6 per cent of that total.
There are two ways to consider these numbers. Some will argue that fighting climate change is largely a lost cause because the cost to average people is too great and politically unpopular to impose and that greenhouse gas emissions are evidence of a booming economy that brings wealth.
But the figures tell another story — that without real action, greenhouse gas emissions will continue to climb, leading to rising temperatures and increasing environmental damage to the earth and its inhabitants. In other words, that without real action climate change will become an increasingly serious problem.
So the Horgan government ( being pushed along by the Green party) is right in implementing policies so B.C. can do its part in addressing what many say is the most important issue of our times. A reasonable carbon tax that is an incentive for people to choose cleaner transportation, gradual changes to building codes and electrification of industry are a few examples in the plan that will lower B.C.’s greenhouse gases.
But in working to cut emissions, the government needs to be careful to consider the ability of regular British Columbians — many already under financial stress — to afford increased climate action.
New taxes and other costly incentives need to be accompanied by cuts in other government fees and taxes otherwise many B.C. residents will stop supporting changes to our collective energy use behaviour.
The current riots in Paris and the election of Doug Ford in Ontario are examples of what happens when government climate policies exceed what people can afford.