Bad year predicted for chinook returns

SEATTLE A lean year for orcas and fishermen alike is expected, with poor salmon returns forecast for many species all over Washington state.

Fisheries professionals are working to set fishing seasons on both sides of the U.S.-Canada border for the coming year. So far the news is grim, with salmon forecast to return at just fractions of 10year averages.

For the southern-resident killer whales, it will be another tough year ahead, with even fewer fish forecast this year than last in many of the important rivers the whales rely on in their seasonal migratory rounds. Below-average returns are predicted from the Fraser to the Columbia rivers, as well as smaller body sizes for most species, according to Fisheries and Oceans Canada.

Returns of spring chinook to the Columbia are predicted to be down 14 per cent from last year, and at just half the 10-year average. These fish return mostly to hatcheries, but also to some spawning areas above Bonneville dam, and are a mainstay for orcas and fishermen. Those fish are particularly important to endangered southern-resident orcas because of their size, fat content and seasonal timing. Upriver bright and fall chinook returns to the Columbia are also at about half the 10-year average return.

The news isn’t better in Puget Sound. Only 29,800 wild chinook are predicted to come back. Protecting those fragile runs will necessitate reductions in fishing of hatchery fish to reduce the unintentional killing of wild chinook.

The projected return of hatchery chinook to Puget Sound is also down from 2018, but still 11 per cent above the 10-year average. Chum look bad particularly in Puget Sound, with the lowest returns forecast in a decade.

There are some bright spots. Coho returning this year missed the worst years of poor ocean conditions. Coho hatchery and wild returns to Puget Sound are up about 15 per cent from the 10-year average, with more than 100,000 fish coming back over last year, and good returns predicted in mid- and South Sound rivers.

Poor salmon returns this year are due largely to the lingering effects of the Blob, a gigantic mass of unusually warm water off the entire west coast of North America that began forming in late 2014, and intensified in 2015. The warm water upended food chains and killed an uncounted number of animals.