Separating mirages from the real deals in early NHL action
Improved Oilers are true contenders, Sabres pretenders
Edmonton and Buffalo are the two best teams in the NHL. And Tampa Bay and San Jose are two of the worst.
What’s real and what’s a mirage?
While two weeks hardly provides a large enough sample size to make sweeping predictions, here are three obvious mirages and three indicators of long-term success.
JUST A MIRAGE Buffalo will win the Atlantic
The Sabres are the only team in their division that hasn’t lost in regulation time. But you could be forgiven for not jumping on the bandwagon just yet.
After all, the team teased fans around this time a year ago with a 10-game winning streak, only to follow it up with a 13th-place finish in the conference standings. Could Buffalo be in for a similar fall from grace?
Well, not if you believe that rookie Victor Olofsson (five goals) will win the Calder Trophy or goalie Carter Hutton (1.74 goals-against average) will win the Vezina.
Then again, keep in mind that four of Buffalo’s first six opponents failed to make the playoffs last year. Let’s see how the Sabres fare against Boston, Tampa Bay and Toronto.
Dallas will miss the playoffs
It took a tongue-lashing from the team’s president for Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin to get their act together last year. Another pep talk might be needed after Dallas began this season with a 1-5-1 record. But this time, it’s Joe Pavelski who needs to wake up.
The former Shark has no goals and just one assist after seven games since joining the Stars.
That’s part of the reason Dallas has lost more games in regulation than any other team.
Expect the production for Pavelski, who has reached the 60-point mark pretty much every year for the last decade, to come around. Once he does, you can also expect the Stars, who had a tough early schedule, to follow his lead.
Neal will win Richard Trophy
James Neal has already surpassed last year’s total with eight goals in six games. Much of his success comes from playing a top-six role and receiving power-play time alongside Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
Could Neal, who scored a career-best 40 goals when playing with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, be looking at another 40-goal season? Could he score 50?
Don’t count on it.
Neal has an unsustainable 38.1 shooting percentage. Plus, it’s been eight seasons since he last scored 40 goals.
Edmonton is Canada’s best hope
For the second straight year, McDavid and Draisaitl are once again among the leaders for the Art Ross Trophy. The only difference is this time around, their production isn’t in vain.
The Oilers have one regulation loss in six games. What’s more, four of their wins have come against teams that weren’t in the playoffs a year ago.
But it’s not the wins the Oilers have accumulated. It’s how they’re winning.
While McDavid and Draisaitl are leading the offensive charge, Edmonton is getting secondary scoring from Neal (eight goals) and Zack Kassian (five points) and, more importantly, is making life easier on its goalies by allowing the fifth fewest shots per game.
Devils the draft lottery favourite
The Devils missed out on a playoff spot last season, mostly because they went without league MVP Taylor Hall for most of the year. Hall is now healthy and producing, but the Devils still remain the only winless team in the NHL.
That’s a bit surprising, considering New Jersey had such a big summer, adding defenceman P.K. Subban and winger Wayne Simmonds, as well drafting Jack Hughes with the No. 1 pick.
So what gives? Well, scoring is an issue, with the Devils getting shut out twice already. But the bigger issue is in net, where Mackenzie Blackwood and Cory Schneider have the second-worst save percentage after finishing in the bottom three a year ago.
Laine could win the Art Ross
The Jets sniper, who missed most of training camp because of a contract dispute, has bolted out of the gate with 11 points in seven games.
What’s more impressive is that eight of those points are assists, putting him in contention for the overall scoring lead.
Patrik Laine has never finished with more than 70 points in a single season, but he’s also never played on the top line before. With him now flanking Mark Scheifele with Blake Wheeler, Laine is getting a getting a chance to show off his playmaking skills. He’s still a shoot-first forward, so expect him to finish with more goals than assists. At the same time, as long as he remains on a line with Scheifele and Wheeler, production shouldn’t be a problem.