Countries offer lessons on long road back to normal
Travel restrictions were lifted in Wuhan, China for the first time in 10 weeks. Denmark will open kindergartens and primary schools after Easter following a monthlong closure.
Slowly, some countries are beginning to ease restrictions put in place to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, even as the virus continues to spread rapidly in parts of the world.
By Wednesday, there were more than 1.5 million confirmed cases in more than 180 countries that have caused more than 87,000 deaths, according to information compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
In Canada, there are more than 18,000 cases and nearly 400 deaths. In the U.S., reported infections topped 420,000 and the death count rose above 14,700.
B.C. will look to the experiences of other countries, including South Korea, Singapore, Germany and Sweden, and also tap information from computer modelling, as it considers when and how it might lift unprecedented restrictions, B.C.’s provincial health officer, Dr. Bonnie Henry, said this week.
But any easing of restrictions in B.C. — similar to what is happening in other countries — isn’t likely to be a wholesale return to life before the pandemic.
“It’s not going to be able to go back 100 per cent where we were in January or at Christmastime, where we were able to celebrate and come together,” warned Henry.
In Wuhan, the city where the virus first emerged, travel restrictions were lifted Tuesday after there were only three new cases reported in the previous three weeks.
However, to be able to leave Wuhan, travellers were required to complete an online health survey and download a QR code that tells officials they’re not at risk of infection, based on factors such as their medical history and address.
Singapore, which had been praised for its response to the coronavirus for using aggressive contact tracing and strict quarantine measures, put in place this week new restrictive measures to counter a surge in cases. New lockdown measures include closing schools and workplaces.
Hong Kong, which also had controlled the spread of the virus, recently closed its borders to non-residents.
South Korea is also concerned about a potential rebound in the virus and has pushed back opening schools and put in place stringent border measures. All new arrivals since April 1 face a mandatory 14day quarantine.
If and when they do open schools, South Korea is considering measures such as conducting half of all courses at school and half online.
Starting in mid-March, B.C. closed schools, many businesses, as well as parks, and urged people to social distance by keeping two metres away from others. At minimum, those measures are expected to remain in place until the end of April.
B.C.’s case numbers have started to plateau, with the rate of increase dropping. The numbers of people hospitalized and in intensive care have also declined slightly.
University of B.C. epidemiologist Mohsen Sadatsavafi said Wednesday that he believes it’s premature to think about lifting restrictions, because the parameters of the disease’s spread aren’t fully understood. That includes not knowing how many people don’t show signs of being infected, and how contagious those people are.
So, there’s a lot to be learned from other countries, said Sadatsavafi, a professor in the faculty of pharmaceutical sciences, who is involved in modelling the virus’ spread and measures to halt it.
“(Lifting restrictions) is not a decision any jurisdiction can make with confidence,” he said.
If, and when, suppression measures can be lifted, it should be done gradually and will require the capacity to test and track down new cases, and then trace any contacts, so they can be isolated, said Sadatsavafi.
He believes that B.C. has the ability to do that, but it will require agility, efficiency and proper co-ordination.
On Wednesday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau acknowledged as much, saying that if restrictions were to be eased, it would require continued surveillance, testing and contact tracing.
University of Victoria mathematics professor Junling Ma, an expert in the spread of infectious disease, said as COVID-19 cases aren’t increasing as fast as they were, it would be a good time to start planning on how restrictive measures might be lifted.
He said it’s important to remember, however, that until a population level immunity is reached, almost everyone in Canada is susceptible to being infected.