Economic report two months late, but with key updates
As an NDP government task force on the emerging economy completed its final report in March, the chairwoman, Kathy Kinloch, emphasized that it was appointed to take the long view.
“We kept our focus on the foundational actions required today to create longterm opportunity tomorrow,” wrote Kinloch in a covering letter to Michelle Mungall, cabinet minister for jobs, economic development and competitiveness.
Kinloch, who is president of BCIT, noted how the task force was appointed in summer 2018 to make recommendations for developing the economy over the next 10 to 25 years.
“Of course,” she cautioned, “we cannot predict what the future will look like in the next 25 years.”
Or the next 25 days for that matter. By the time she and her 13 colleagues put the finishing touches on their final report, they plus the government and the province were overtaken by the COVID-19 outbreak.
“An unanticipated, fundamentally significant and historically unprecedented ‘Black Swan’ event,” as Kinloch called it, using the term for an unforeseen occurrence that is as rare as it is severe.
The quote is from her second covering letter to Mungall, dated last Friday and released Monday along with the two-months-late, 54-page final report of the task force.
“Our engagements and report writing concluded before COVID-19,” explained Kinloch. Nevertheless “we believe that the recommendations we have submitted remain as relevant today as they were at the time of their development.
A key finding was that the economy of the future will “experience regular disruption and uncertainty, creating a need for nimble, adaptive and flexible business practices and policy.”
Kinloch then proceeded to display some nimbleness of her own by trying to reframe the report as relevant to the post-pandemic economic recovery.
On the task force’s call for B.C. to embrace technology and innovation: “COVID-19 has inspired and accelerated the use of technology ... This pillar will be critical for short-term recovery and longer-term prosperity.”
On recommendations to “leverage” the green economy and products: “The world has seemingly enjoyed clearer skies and significant reductions in GHGs in many countries over the past few weeks. However, climate change remains an existential threat.”
On building a skilled and adaptable workforce: “With significant unemployment now and for the foreseeable future, it has been an historical trend that many unemployed return to school to upgrade their skills or to learn a new vocation.”
On the report’s call for ensuring the security of B.C.’s current and future food supply: “Now more paramount than ever.”
On demonstrating public-sector leadership: “With the advent of COVID-19, governments have proven their ability to respond to the crisis. This same leadership and agility will be needed to navigate future opportunities and challenges.
“The pandemic has challenged our concept of essential workers and which industries are vital to economic prosperity,” she continued. “This may lead us to review how we measure growth, well-being and quality-of-life.”
Toward the end of this dissertation, she might have been channelling somebody’s platform for the next provincial election.
“Moving beyond GDP and including indicators like work and life balance, education and skills, income and wealth, jobs and earnings, environmental quality and housing, can give us a realistic window into the true state of our province,” wrote the task force chairwoman. “These broader measures can be used as a blueprint for addressing challenges including poverty, inequality, climate change, environmental degradation, prosperity, and peace and justice.”
Kinloch and colleagues weren’t the only ones to discover that, as the saying goes, “prediction is very difficult, especially when about the future.”
Also released Monday was the final report of Alan Winter, who stepped down in February after two years as innovation commissioner.
He called for the government to “fund the establishment of innovation precincts,” and “support the development of emerging technology clusters,” which had me wondering about the difference between a precinct and a cluster. (The task force indulged in a bit of techno-guff as well, calling for the province to “ensure an effective enabling ecosystem.”)
The government sat on the innovation commission’s recommendations for almost three months before releasing them. Nevertheless, Mungall hailed them for having “come at an important time. ... This report will inform our work as we support an economic recovery that creates family-supporting jobs across B.C.”
The innovation commissioner and the task force on the emerging economy were promoted by the Green party via the power-sharing deal with the NDP. Not surprisingly, the former, current and putative leaders of the Greens — respectively Andrew Weaver, Adam Olsen and Sonia Furstenau — endorsed the reports Monday.
Another report whose contents have been overtaken by events is A Framework for Improving British Columbians’ Standard of Living, which was released in January, a few weeks before the province recorded its first COVID-19 case.
The 91-page economic plan for the province was produced under the leadership of Don Wright, Kinloch’s predecessor as president of BCIT and now head of the provincial public service and deputy minister to Premier John Horgan.
The report was intended to steer B.C. toward a higher standard of living by promoting quality economic growth across the province, including “steady increases in real wages” and “healthy increases in per capita real government revenue without raising tax rates.”
Someday B.C.’s economic future may again look that rosy. But with the province having lost 400,000 jobs in two months, the immediate challenge is to stop the bleeding here and now.
Kinloch then proceeded to display some nimbleness of her own by trying to reframe the report as relevant to the post-pandemic economic recovery.