Bubble boys of summer make sports TV better, but football’s struggling
BULLS OF THE WEEK
One week into their respective “bubbles,” the NHL and NBA have to be relieved with how their hub-city projects are going, both in terms of zero positive novel coronavirus tests to date in Toronto, Edmonton and Orlando, and how the games are translating on television.
Although there is no manual for operating the NHL or NBA in August, the early TV numbers are at least moderate to bullish.
From record-setting numbers for the modest slate of exhibition games two weeks ago, to the most-watched non-stanley Cup final game involving a Canadian team in NBC network history — Montreal’s 3-2 overtime win over Pittsburgh in Game 1 last Saturday — the NHL and its broadcast partners are so far enjoying their made-for-television tournament.
The good news for the NHL is some of its playoff games have rivalled the 1.5 million average viewership of the NBA’S regular-season restart. The sobering news is that Canada continues to serve as the NHL’S television and economic breadbasket, with Canadians outwatching Americans 9-to-1 on a per capita basis.
P.S.: Another bullish headline for the NHL this week: The merchandising launch of the Seattle Kraken, which has exceeded the previous record expansion debut of apparel for the Vegas Golden Knights by a 4-to-1 margin.
BEARS OF THE WEEK
The business of football — defined as the U.S. vertical of high school football, college football and the NFL, along with the CFL in Canada — is by far the biggest sports sector in North America.
When you include varsity football and its parade of bowl games and the College Football Championship, the annual revenues generated by the gridiron game exceed $20 billion (more than $14 billion of which resides in the NFL). It is such a powerful economic force that it defines U.S. cultural and social norms, with high school football Friday nights, college on Saturdays and the NFL mainly focused on any given Sunday.
It’s little wonder that it inspires more sports betting and fantasy sports spinoffs than the other four major North American team sports combined.
Yet despite the intrigue behind the acquisition of the rights to the bankrupt XFL brand this week by Dwayne (The Rock) Johnson and Redbird Capital, football is treading on the cusp of a bear market, the likes of which it hasn’t seen since the NFL players strike of 1987.
Never before has there been as much uncertainty surrounding the NFL, CFL and college football. Football may indeed find a way to navigate through the COVID-19 pandemic relatively unscathed, but there’s little doubt the serious questions eclipse the solid answers with about a month to go before the one-two punch of college and NFL football would typically launch.
Most NFL teams and college football conferences appear to be in denial as they continue to talk about some form of fan attendance for games this fall. And north of the border, the CFL is the closest to “going dark” than it has ever been.
Any form of compromised offering — from no fans in the stands to a shortened season — will have a significant collateral impact on the sport industry collective, from television and radio rights holders and corporate sponsors and advertisers to sports books and merchandisers, including the food, restaurant and sports pub retail infrastructure that is heavily dependent upon football, especially in the U.S. The Sport Market on TSN Radio rates and debates the bulls and bears of sport business. Join Tom Mayenknecht on Saturdays from 7 a.m. to 11 a.m. for a behind-the-scenes look at the sport-business stories that matter most to fans. twitter.com/thesportmarket