Vancouver Sun

‘A BRAND NEW PLAYING FIELD’

Conservati­ves set stage to name next leader

- BRIAN PLATT

OTTAWA • Canadian politics has never seen a summer quite like this one. There is the pandemic, with its extraordin­ary economic turmoil and massive new government spending programs. There is the WE Charity scandal, which has rocked Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government.

And now there is the resignatio­n of Finance Minister Bill Morneau and Trudeau’s decision to prorogue Parliament until a new throne speech in September, which is expected to set out a grand post-pandemic agenda for the country.

Throughout it all, the Conservati­ves, as the official opposition, have been fighting with one arm tied behind their back: they haven’t had the leader in place who will lead them into the next election.

On Sunday night, that will finally change as the party elects one of Peter Mackay, Erin O’toole, Leslyn Lewis or Derek Sloan as its new leader.

John Wright, executive vice-president at market research firm Maru/blue, described Sunday’s vote as the beginning of a “critical chapter” in Canadian politics that could play out over the next five to 10 years. “As soon as the leader is elected for the Conservati­ves, it creates a brand new playing field,” he said. “It allows the Conservati­ves to be very careful about how they decide to fight this government.”

Wright says the summer of political drama has effectivel­y been a “phoney war” due to the Conservati­ves lacking a permanent leader. But after Sunday, the next election campaign really starts to take shape.

“The ballot question for the Liberals will be decided in the throne speech and what is put in front of the House for approval,” he said. “That will be their campaign. So it then becomes a juxtaposit­ion: who and what is the Conservati­ve Party? That will be sharply defined in the month of September. That’s where the battle lines will be drawn.”

“So that’s when the real choices begin to be made in the public domain.”

Jenni Byrne, a former senior aide to Stephen Harper who now runs her own consulting firm, said the last six months have been “unpreceden­ted,” pointing to the record deficit being run up and the fact Parliament has now been shut down. She said it couldn’t be more important for the Conservati­ves to get to work on their own long-term plan for the country.

“The Conservati­ve leader in a month is going to have to be able to respond to this grand sweeping vision that the Liberals are going to talk about,” she said. “This isn’t the time for platitudes... This is the time to actually talk about what is going to happen, because the economic ramificati­ons have not been felt, I don’t think, by this country yet.”

Kate Harrison, vice president at Summa Strategies and a former Conservati­ve political staffer, said Sunday’s election will finally allow the Conservati­ves to be a fully effective opposition.

“I think the key word is some stability for the party, to demonstrat­e not just unity but that they’ve got both hands on the wheel,” she said. “I actually think the Conservati­ves have done a pretty adept job minus a permanent leader of keeping (criticisms of the Liberals) on the front burner. But it’s more so about a consistent voice and presence in the media, and also an alternativ­e.”

The deadline for voting, which is being done entirely by mail-in ballot, passed Friday at 5 p.m. The results would normally be announced in a large hall packed with party members, but this year’s pandemic-era version will see the results rolled out at a small, audience-free event Sunday evening in Ottawa.

The voting takes place with a ranked ballot, and it will go as many rounds as it takes until one candidate reaches 50 per cent of the vote. Most insiders see the race as a tight contest between Mackay and O’toole, with Lewis having an outside shot at winning.

Regardless of who wins, they’ll be thrown right into the fire. With a minority Parliament situation, an election could be triggered any time all three opposition parties — the Conservati­ves, Bloc Québécois and NDP — decide to vote for it.

“I think unity is going to be extremely important for whoever wins,” Byrne said. “It’s been a very chippy race, probably a chippier race than any I’ve seen since I’ve been involved in politics. So it’s going to be incumbent upon whoever wins to be able to ensure that the party is united so we are ready to start holding the government to account.”

The new Conservati­ve leader will also have to decide how to craft an agenda during the largest public health crisis in a century.

“One of the biggest challenges is going to be not coming across as insensitiv­e Scrooges, because a lot of (the spending) has been geared towards helping people in need,” Harrison said. “Trying to balance as Conservati­ves the imperative for that, but also the notion and concept of fiscal restraint and spending on the right things, and the ability to wean off of these programs, that’s a nuanced message.”

Wright said his firm has been constantly polling both Canadians and Americans on the pandemic and how

ONE OF THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES IS GOING TO BE NOT COMING ACROSS AS INSENSITIV­E SCROOGES.

it affects their lives going forward. But even though Canadians are consistent­ly more optimistic about the situation, half of polled Canadians still say they’re worried about their family finances and the direction of the economy.

That’s an opportunit­y for the Conservati­ves to shape their own vision of what a post-pandemic Canada should look like, he said, but it requires some deep thinking ahead of the next election.

“That’s what the fight’s going to be about,” Wright said. “It’s going to be about the style of government that we’re going to have for the next decade.”

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 ?? DARREN CALABRESE/THE CANADIAN PRESS ?? Due to COVID-19 concerns, there will be no large crowds on hand when the Conservati­ve Party of Canada names its new leader on Sunday.
DARREN CALABRESE/THE CANADIAN PRESS Due to COVID-19 concerns, there will be no large crowds on hand when the Conservati­ve Party of Canada names its new leader on Sunday.
 ??  ?? Conservati­ve Party of Canada leadership candidates (clockwise from top left) Peter Mackay, Erin O’toole, Leslyn Lewis and Derek Sloan.
Conservati­ve Party of Canada leadership candidates (clockwise from top left) Peter Mackay, Erin O’toole, Leslyn Lewis and Derek Sloan.
 ?? PHOTOS: FRANK GUNN/ THE CANADIAN PRESS ??
PHOTOS: FRANK GUNN/ THE CANADIAN PRESS
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