IN FLUID WORLD, HORGAN MULLS EARLY ELECTION

Premier John Horgan has begun sounding out cabinet ministers on whether they plan to run for re-election, with the written-into-law date for the next provincewide vote still 13 months away.

Such soundings were standard practice in previous election cycles as well. Premiers use them to set the stage for a pre-election makeover, with retirees moved to the backbench and fresh faces elevated to cabinet rank.

But the news, confirmed by the premier’s office to Rob Shaw of The Vancouver Sun, added to speculation that Horgan was seeking to call an election well before the Oct. 16, 2021 date that he and the New Democrats fixed in legislation just three years ago.

If so, it raised a question about how Horgan intended to square a pre-emptive strike with the terms of the confidence and supply agreement (CASA) that he signed with the Greens following the 2017 election.

CASA was deliberately crafted to tie the premier’s hands regarding an early election call.

“The leader of the New Democrats will not request a dissolution of the legislature during the term of this agreement, except following the defeat of a motion of confidence,” says the key clause.

Another clause says the term of the agreement would run to the date set down in legislation for the next election.

A third clause limited matters of confidence to the vote on “the overall budgetary policy of the government,” which usually takes place in the spring session of the legislature.

Hence my question to the premier on Wednesday.

Did he still consider himself bound by CASA?

“We have had great success here in British Columbia over the past three years with a collaborative approach to governing, working with the Green caucus,” he began.

True enough. Without CASA, and the support of the Greens that came with it, Horgan wouldn’t have become premier or governed as long as he has.

But what he said next suggested he was looking for an escape hatch from the agreement.

“You know full well that the Green caucus today is not the Green caucus of three years ago,” Horgan told me. “You will also know that the vast majority of the elements of CASA have been realized.”

Yes, and I also know that when Andrew Weaver quit the Greens to sit as an independent earlier this year, he and Horgan exchanged letters that said CASA was still in effect. It is also a matter of record that Weaver and the remaining two Green MLAs, Adam Olsen and Sonia Furstenau, supported the NDP government, when it counted, on a confidence vote back on Feb. 27. The vote underwrote Horgan’s survival as premier for another year.

But on Wednesday Horgan seemed more inclined to consign CASA to the scrap heap of history: “You will also know that nowhere in that document will you see the word pandemic. So the world we live in today is not the world of 2017.

“I know that British Columbians want me to focus on 2020 and beyond, rather than looking backward to a relationship I had with the then-leader of the Green party and his colleagues. And that’s my focus, quite frankly, making sure that we’re addressing the issues that are in front of British Columbians today.”

The main issue of course being the aforementioned pandemic. Horgan has earned accolades for not politicizing the management of the novel coronavirus pandemic and leaving much of the decision making to Health Minister Adrian Dix and provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry.

But was the premier now suggesting that he no longer felt bound by the terms of an agreement he and the New Democrats signed with great fanfare back on May 30, 2017?

“You can parse my words — you get paid to do that 750 words at a time,” he replied, rightly anticipating that I would shamelessly milk what he said for a column.

The premier went on: “What I’m saying is as evident as the nose on my face. We are in a global pandemic that did not get contemplated in CASA. And that’s my focus right now, not an agreement that has served British Columbians and the legislature well over the past three years.”

The premier’s calculated discounting of CASA brought an immediate rebuke from his partner in the power-sharing agreement, Adam Olsen, interim leader of the Greens.

"It is irresponsible and cynical for the premier to try to undermine a well-functioning government and threaten to force B.C. into an unnecessary election,” said Olsen.

“By playing political games and sabre rattling about an election in the midst of a pandemic, especially as we fight to hold back a second wave, John Horgan is putting his political interests before British Columbians,” the Green leader continued.

“British Columbians don’t want an election. They want their politicians to be working to address the consequences of the pandemic. The B.C. Green Caucus remains committed to working in good faith on the real issues facing British Columbians."

Still, while Horgan didn’t rule out an election call, neither did he go as far as he did back in July, when he characterized the early vote as an “opportunity.”

Maybe he’s just keeping his options open and waiting to see if an opportunity opens up in the fall. Or maybe he’s just toying with us, election speculation being a game that a premier can play more knowingly than any pundit.