14 ridings NDP needs to gain a majority
From two Green outposts on the Island to ridings across the Metro region, Rob Shaw looks at 14 ridings that are key to the NDP's re-election hopes.
VICTORIA Premier John Horgan called a snap fall election with a clear plan in mind: Win a majority government, at all costs.
His decision to tear up the power-sharing agreement with the B.C. Greens, and break his promise not to go to the polls early, means the NDP may have permanently burned any co-operative bridge to stay in office if the party falls short — like it did in 2017 — with fewer than the 44 seats required for a bare majority.
Realistically, the NDP needs 45 or more seats, giving it breathing room to appoint a Speaker. That means it has to pick up four more seats than it did in 2017, while holding its ground in Metro Vancouver ridings won by narrow margins where the B.C. Liberals will be mounting counterattacks.
So what could the path to victory look like for the NDP? Here are some of the key ridings:
VANCOUVER ISLAND
The NDP could take a big step toward a majority by defeating the B.C. Greens in the three Island seats that party won in the last election.
Cowichan Valley: Home of B.C. Green Leader Sonia Furstenau, this will be ground zero for the friends-turned-enemies battle between the Greens and NDP. Prior to Furstenau, this was a strong NDP riding. But infighting over the party's equity policy blew up its organizational might in 2017. And Furstenau has proven to be a strong local MLA with deep support in the community.
Saanich North and Islands: Act 2 of the NDP-Green war plays out here where the Greens' Adam Olsen seeks to hold his seat in what in the past two elections has been a tight three-way race between the Liberals, NDP and Greens. All parties have areas of strength in the riding. It will be a tight battle.
Oak Bay-Gordon Head: Perhaps the most interesting race in the entire election. Former Green leader Andrew Weaver's retirement, and fallout with his old party, leave this riding up for grabs. Prior to Weaver, it had been strong Liberal territory. But the NDP has a popular local candidate, and the Greens have a minefield of bitter mixed feelings.
METRO VANCOUVER
Half of B.C.'s 87 ridings are located here, making the region an intense give-and-take of victories and defeats for both the NDP and Liberals.
TO WIN IN METRO:
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain: A suburban swing seat traded back and forth between the NDP and Liberals in recent years. Liberal Joan Isaacs squeaked through by 87 votes in 2017. This time, the NDP is fielding heavyweight former NDP MP Fin Donnelly in a bid to win it back.
Vancouver-False Creek: Once a Liberal safe haven, the NDP made big gains in 2017 and have put this riding into play. Liberal candidate running for re-election and former Vancouver mayor Sam Sullivan has watched his grip on this seat slide sharply. The NDP feels a concerted effort could flip this orange. Richmond-Queensborough: Liberal Jas Johal won this new riding by only 300 votes in 2017, despite his high profile as a former Global B.C. reporter. Now, the NDP is throwing everything it has to knock him off, not just because the race is close but also because Johal has proven to be one of the most effective critics. A diverse riding created in 2017, it contains everything from farms to suburbs.
Other neighbouring ridings to keep an eye on are Richmond South Centre, where Linda Reid is retiring, and Richmond-Steveston, where John Yap has departed and where the NDP's popularity grew sharply in 2017.
TO HOLD IN METRO:
Maple Ridge-Mission: The NDP won here by fewer than 400 votes in 2017, but Bob D'Eith, who is running for re-election, will have to wear his party's decision in government to impose housing for the homeless in an unpopular location, which sparked protests and a war of words with Maple Ridge's mayor. D'Eith is under a lot of pressure to hold this seat because a loss here would seriously undermine the NDP's march to a majority. Expect to see Horgan campaigning here often.
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows: The stronger of the two Maple Ridge ridings for the NDP, Lisa Beare, who is running for re-election, has slightly better odds of holding off the Liberals, who last won the seat in 2013. But it's another must-keep riding for the NDP.
Burnaby North: Concerns about increased ocean oil tanker traffic from expanded pipelines caused this riding to flip from Liberal to NDP last election. But despite the NDP's rhetoric, the TransMountain pipeline expansion is still happening and tanker traffic will still increase. Janet Routledge, who is seeking re-election, will have her hands full countering a full-court press by the Liberals to reclaim a seat they had held since 2001. North Vancouver-Lonsdale: The NDP's Bowinn Ma won this historically Liberal seat in 2017, and now needs to keep control of it. She seems to be in a good position, having built a high profile and helped the NDP on local transit issues. But the Liberals intend to mount a serious challenge.
Port Moody-Coquitlam: A true swing riding that has swapped back and forth between the Liberals and NDP the past four elections. The NDP's Rick Glumac wants to buck that trend and win a re-election, though he is in his first term in office and was one of the lowest-profile MLAs in the entire government caucus.
REST OF B.C.
Fraser-Nicola: One of the few ridings outside Metro Vancouver the NDP used to win, but can't seem to get back from the Liberals. A strong candidate this time, lawyer and local First Nations councillor Aaron Sumexheltza, has already been undermined by NDP infighting and the resignation of the entire local NDP riding association, which is opposed to his candidacy. The NDP has an uphill battle here. But it's not impossible. Boundary-Similkameen: The departure of two-term Liberal Linda Larson has the NDP eyeing its prospects in this riding, which encompasses Princeton, Hedley, Keremeos, Oliver, Osoyoos and Grand Forks. But voters here have been swayed by a New Democrat only once in its history, in 1991. Columbia River-Revelstoke: This used to be NDP stomping grounds, but an implosion in the party over the nomination last election let Liberal Doug Clovechok pick up the win. The NDP hopes to win this back with Nicole Cherlet, a Revelstoke city councillor. But Clovechok has his sights set on a second term.