NDP lead but many voters undecided
The New Democrats expected a backlash for calling an early election and they also expected the controversy would soon blow over.
Both expectations were borne out in opinion polls released during the second full week of campaigning.
First came a survey from Ipsos, released Tuesday, that had the New Democrats well in front with 51 per cent support among those who'd made up their minds. The Liberals were well back at 33 per cent, the Greens at just 12.
The backlash was there too in the survey commissioned by Global TV and CKNW radio.
Asked point blank whether they approved of the early election, 46 per cent said they did not, only 32 per cent were supportive. But only a small fraction of those polled said the concern was enough to give them pause in considering whether to vote NDP.
“It's not enough now to create a tight race,” said Kyle Braid, senior vice-president for Ipsos.
Two days later, The Vancouver Sun reported a Leger poll that found almost half of those surveyed (49 per cent) were opposed to the early election while about the same share (47 per cent) were inclined to vote NDP, Liberals 31 per cent, Greens 13.
“I'm not entirely surprised,” Leger executive vice-president Andrew Enns told The Sun. “One of the questions we've been asking every week since March is general satisfaction with provincial governments and their handling and managing of the pandemic. British Columbia has almost from the get-go done quite well in regards to that.”
Both sets of findings undercut NDP Leader John Horgan's self-serving claim that the early election was a tough call.
“So it's a large lead, and one that certainly suggests why we're having the election today instead of waiting until next year,” said Braid, during an interview with Simi Sara on CKNW radio.
“If they didn't have these numbers, they had other numbers that I've seen. So they've seen numbers that suggest ridiculous numbers of British Columbians are confident in the job that the government is doing.”
The Leger representative agreed that for all the opposition to calling an election during a pandemic, there was nevertheless strong support for the election of a majority government.
“From the premier's perspective, it can help sometimes to sort of defray the opposition, to say we could end up with stability and stability's good at this particular time,” said Enns.
“It's very challenging for opposition parties during the pandemic to get any traction other than saying, `Yeah, this is the right thing to do.'”
Both the Liberals and the Greens strongly supported
NDP actions during the novel coronavirus pandemic. It didn't keep Horgan from double crossing them and claiming all the credit with the election call.
Both surveys were taken before the Liberals took the wraps off their big-ticket promise to eliminate the seven per cent provincial sales tax for one year and hold it at three per cent for a second year.
The Ipsos poll also found an unusually high number of undecided voters.
“Last election, we had 23 per cent undecided, the one before that 15 or 16, this time it's 31,” said Braid. “So if you want a silver lining as a Liberal or a Green, the undecideds are there and listening to what the parties have to say.”
While listening to Braid talk about his latest poll this week, I thought back to election night 2013 when I was beside him, providing election commentary on the set at Global TV.
As the results poured in, confounding pollsters and pundits alike, I fled the set to tweak (read: “vaporize”) a draft column congratulating premier Adrian Dix on the big win.
“I'm not supposed to mention the 2013 election,” Braid said this week, “but the NDP started that election, in most polling, with an 18-point lead. So things can change.”
But then the government was unpopular and people were considering the need for change and looking at the alternative.
“Here, it's completely different,” explained Braid. “We have a very popular provincial government, so the task in unseating them is much bigger.”
The polls usually tighten up in B.C. as election day approaches and Braid expects they will do so this time as well.
“But 18 points is an awful lot to make up on a government that's got 60 to 70 per cent approval on the issues that matter to voters.”
Ipsos also provided a preview of the leadership matchup in advance of the televised election debate, now set for Oct 13.
Horgan was identified by 45 per cent of those surveyed as the leader best suited to lead B.C. Andrew Wilkinson was well behind at 14 per cent, followed by newly elected Green Leader Sonia Furstenau at six.
“I suspect that I've only met about 14 per cent of British Columbians, so we're working on that right now,” said Wilkinson in responding to his number.
“I'm humbled,” said Horgan when advised he was well ahead of the others.
But if the polls remain on the current track, I expect he'll get over any feelings of modesty by the time the election is over.
The Liberals and the Greens strongly supported NDP actions during the ... pandemic. It didn't keep Horgan from double crossing them and claiming all the credit with the election call.
The Ipsos survey was conducted Sept 24-28 with 1,250 respondents via online and phone interviews.
Margin of error is 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The Leger web survey was done over the same dates with 800 respondents. Margin of error is 3.5 points.