Three scenarios for Covid-stricken leader
RECOVERY TIME, ILLNESS SEVERITY KEY DETERMINERS
1. Donald Trump has mild symptoms and returns to work quickly.
There are already two political impacts that are unavoidable however quickly the president recovers from the virus.
The first is the campaign time lost. Trump cannot visit the battleground states in which he needs to close the gap with rival Joe Biden, or hold events with cheering supporters as he self-isolates at the White House.
The second is a change of focus. In the coming days, coronavirus will be the dominant topic in the media and polls show most Americans think he has mishandled the pandemic. The spotlight will be shone on the many times Trump has downplayed the virus's threat and dismissed prevention measures such as wearing masks.
None of this is likely to help Trump's hopes of re-election. But if he has a speedy recovery, there may be political benefits.
Trump could more effectively be able to project empathy for Americans who have been affected by the virus.
Biden, his Democratic rival, has attempted to make that a point of difference between himself and the president.
Trump could declare that he has beaten the virus. The second Biden-trump debate is scheduled for Oct 15, almost exactly two weeks after his positive test. Could the president return, COVID-19free and triumphant?
A speedy recovery would also have implications, too, on how Trump views the virus, its risk and the way to combat it.
It is possible that a mild experience with the virus could reinforce Trump's existing views of the pandemic, with the president focusing even more on the need to get the economy going again.
The campaign has to this point seen both candidates try to balance two competing demands: stopping the spread of the virus and protecting businesses from the economic hit.
Could Trump push down the throttle on reopenings if his infection passes quickly?
Any such moves would fundamentally alter the coronavirus debate right before the vote.
2. Trump gets quite ill but recovers and returns to campaign trail.
In this scenario, Trump could benefit politically from what is known as the “rally round the flag” phenomenon, in which American voters stand by the president at moments of great peril.
It is this that polling experts gave as the explanation for why Trump saw his approval rating rise to its highest point of his presidency outside the first few weeks when the outbreak first hit. The increase lasted only a few weeks. Some voters in a nation rocked by more than seven million COVID-19 cases, and grieving the deaths of 208,000 people from the virus, could come to see Trump in a more sympathetic light.
One aspect of the policy reaction in such a scenario would be whether the illness affected Trump's views on China and the degree of blame Beijing has for the spread of the virus.
The president has already been ferociously critical of Chinese officials for not warning the world sooner, for not disclosing early enough human-to-human spread and for not letting independent U.S. scientists in to investigate in those crucial early weeks.
But, so far, all the tough talk has largely not been followed with tough action. Would that change if Trump got quite ill? Could there be sanctions, diplomatic reprimands, steps to make concrete America's disapproval?
There could also be pressure to delay the election. Trump has already floated pushing back the Nov. 3 date because of the pandemic.
It got a quick and stern rebuke from Republican senators who would have to approve the move — Congress would need to pass a law — but Trump's illness could change things.
It is theoretically possible. The inauguration date, Jan. 20, and not the election date, is the one written in stone in the U.S. Constitution.
Why not push the election back a few weeks to make up for lost campaigning time from the illness, some Trump loyalists may ask.
However, the Democrats would also have to approve, given they hold the majority in the House of Representatives — one half of Congress — meaning bipartisan support would be needed.
3. Trump gets very ill and is yet to recover as election nears.
No sitting president is known to have faced a life-threatening condition since Ronald Reagan was shot in 1981, let alone have a health crisis this close to a vote, meaning we would be into uncharted territory.
There is a tried-and-tested system in the U.S. federal government for when presidents become incapacitated, and Mike Pence, the vice-president, will be primed to step in.
Under the 25th Amendment, a medically incapacitated president can temporarily transfer power to the vice-president, as George W. Bush did twice to Dick Cheney during colonoscopies.
Pence already runs the White House's coronavirus task force, so will be fully across the fight to tackle the pandemic.
He knows the policy and the key players, plus spent four years as Indiana's governor, so has experience in handling executive power.
Would Pence take a different approach to the pandemic? He has certainly been less wild in his dismissals of the risk of coronavirus. Could there be other policy changes?
On the political side, the impacts would be incalculable.
There has already been loose and speculative discussion about Trump's name on the ballot and whether there could be a change.
If Trump is incapacitated — or worse — as the electorate is about to make its choice for president on Nov. 3, will there come a point when his name could be replaced?
Pence, again, would be the person almost certainly picked if that grave situation were to come about.
But changing ballots would be a bureaucratic nightmare.
In many states, people are already voting.
In all likelihood, millions of postal ballots have already been sent out, given the increased demands for voting that way.
In this scenario, again, calls for an election delay would ramp up. And they could have more merit.