Trump will recover, but lose vote, poll says

OTTAWA • Most Canadians are expecting U.S. President Donald Trump will make a full recovery from his COVID-19 diagnosis, but will still lose the election to Joe Biden on Nov. 3.

A large majority of Canadians also believe that Trump's cavalier attitude toward wearing a mask contributed to him getting the disease, the poll by Maru/ Blue Public Opinion found. If Trump does make a full recovery, the poll found most Canadians believe it will encourage Americans to downplay the severity of the virus.

John Wright, executive vice-president at Maru/Blue, said Canadians are also “prepared for a turbulent narrative to emerge south of the border.” The poll found 65 per cent believe that “despite evidence to the contrary, a conspiracy theory will emerge that the president got the virus from a deliberate act of someone or party that wants to see him not win back the presidency, or worse.”

The poll was conducted from Oct. 2 to 4 among 1,515 randomly selected members of Maru/Blue's online panel. The firm says it's considered nationally accurate within 3.5 percentage points.

The poll found 64 per cent of Canadians agree with the statement that Trump is getting the best medical care in the world to fight his COVID-19 infection and will “emerge well and return to an active lifestyle.”

But when it comes to the election, 47 per cent expect

Trump will lose to Biden, while 34 per cent aren't sure about the outcome, and 19 per cent believe Trump will win.

One question noted that Trump “rarely wears a mask in public,” and asked whether respondents felt this contributed to him catching the virus. Just over half believed this was a very big factor, while 28 per cent said it was a somewhat big factor and only 18 per cent were dismissive of the importance of him wearing a mask.

A series of broader questions about Trump's diagnosis found mixed views.

The poll found 80 per cent of Canadians agree that if Trump makes a full recovery, “it will embolden many people in the U.S. to downplay the potential impact of catching the virus.”

However, 57 per cent agreed that Trump's diagnosis “will be a wake-up call for anti- mask Americans and they will start wearing masks,” and 60 per cent agreed it “will now change the habits of many more Americans to be much more vigilant and adhere to COVID-19 precautions.”

In Canada, while Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has not contracted the virus, his wife Sophie Grégoire Trudeau was infected last spring. Two opposition leaders — Conservative leader Erin O'Toole and Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet — were infected last month.

Even so, the poll found 83 per cent of Canadians agreed that Trump's infection “will re-enforce to Canadians that our country knows what it is doing when it comes to fighting the COVID-19 virus.”