LOOKING LIKE A WINNER
Horgan's handling of the pandemic a key selling point, polls suggest
Despite being castigated by opponents for calling an `unnecessary election,'
NDP Leader John Horgan appears destined to win the majority government he covets. Calling a snap election was a calculated risk, but one expert suspects `the premier's gamble is going to pay off.' The reason? Voters like how he's handled the pandemic.
NDP Leader John Horgan took a calculated risk in calling an early election in B.C. and breaking a deal with the Greens to support his minority government.
It looks like he may get what he wants: a majority government.
Horgan has received considerable blowback for calling an “unnecessary” election during the coronavirus pandemic. But it has not eroded his party's standing in the polls.
With a week to go in the Oct. 24 election, Horgan's NDP has polled well ahead of the B.C. Liberals, anywhere from a 12- to an 18-point lead, depending on the survey.
The 338Canada.com website — which provides statistical analysis based on opinion polls, electoral history and demographic data — projects the NDP will win 56 seats, the Liberals 29 and the Greens two.
The poll aggregator accurately predicted the outcome of the recent New Brunswick election and has had a 90 per cent success rate predicting riding wins over five elections, including the last federal election. Polls have been wrong in B.C. before, but political observers say it would take some unusual revelation to undermine Horgan's commanding lead this late in the campaign.
“It would seem that the premier's gamble is going to pay off,” said Richard Johnston, a political-science professor emeritus at the University of B.C. “I think the secret is in the poll response in the question of whom British Columbians trust the most to manage the pandemic, and (Horgan's) got a huge advantage.”
B.C. Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson and B.C. Green Leader Sonia Furstenau have attempted to smear Horgan for calling an election a year earlier than it was scheduled in law. Both have said Horgan has called the election purely in his own political interest and that they should be governing, not campaigning, in the middle of a pandemic. Both have said that Horgan can't be trusted.
But the criticism simply has not stuck. In surveys, including a Leger poll conducted for Postmedia just before a televised leaders debate this week, respondents said they don't agree with the election call.
But that hasn't translated into voters turning away from the NDP or increased support for the other parties.
In the Leger survey, respondents said what is most important is a party with a credible plan that invests in services such as health care, education and child care.
Also critical is a stable, experienced government to ensure the province continues to get through the COVID-19 pandemic keeping British Columbians safe and the economy moving.
That favours Horgan and the NDP and mirrors what happened in the New Brunswick election where support for the Conservatives, who won a majority, did not change throughout the campaign, says Andrew Enns, executive vice-president of Leger.
“Wilkinson is definitely on the outside looking in,” said Enns.
A Research Co. poll also conducted before the televised debate showed respondents believed Horgan was the leader better suited to handle COVID-19, health care, education, the economy and jobs, energy, housing, poverty, homelessness, accountability, crime and public safety.
Furstenau was considered better suited on the environment.
Wilkinson did not take the top spot in any category.
Research Co. president Mario Canseco said he does not remember this happening in previous elections where categories are more evenly split among leaders, with the Liberals taking top spot on the economy and jobs.
“I think this really shows the overpowering aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic,” said Canseco.
“We've never had an election with an incumbent premier arriving with an approval rating higher than 50 per cent. … Horgan is now regarded as someone who can handle almost everything.”
PST GAMBIT
A week into the snap election, Wilkinson tried to move the needle of support with the largest tax cut proposal in B.C. history.
He announced his party would eliminate the seven per cent provincial sales tax for one year and then peg it at three per cent until the economy recovered.
The idea is to provide savings to families — the Liberals estimated it at as much as $1,700 a year — and cause increased investment and purchases. The NDP'S antidote to this was to announce a $1,000-a-family pandemic recovery rebate.
But the PST elimination comes with a big hit to the province's revenues: $7 billion in the first year and $4 billion a year when it is partly restored.
It will add to an already projected $12-billion deficit this fiscal year and expected continuing deficits for years to come.
NDP spending announcements — including the $1,000 rebate — will also add billions to the deficit.
But Sanjay Jeram, a Simon Fraser University political scientist, said the “bold” PST elimination policy proposal did not change support for Wilkinson and the Liberals.
“Obviously, all the pressure was on the Liberals and the Greens to try to try to break the narrative, the kind of momentum the (NDP) had. And I would say that both have somewhat, at least so far, seem to have failed,” said Jeram.
Similarly, a pitch to open up ICBC'S monopoly on auto insurance to private companies in the hopes of lowering rates appears to have failed to resonate with the public.
While the NDP'S handling of ICBC has not been without its critics — and has increased rates, particularly for some young drivers — the Liberals have been denounced for not taking steps to deal with the Crown corporation's mounting financial problems when they were in power for 16 years.
The Liberals also carry baggage from their handling of the housing crisis when prices skyrocketed in the years before the 2017 election, say political observers.
Also on the list of items the Liberals have been criticized for is not dealing effectively with money laundering in B.C.
“For many people, I think 2017 (when 16 years of Liberal rule ended) is still too fresh in their memories,” observed Jeram.
AN ODD POSITION
As a result of the pandemic, the B.C. Liberals have also found themselves in the odd position of arguing that they are the better party to spend more public dollars.
It's an unusual position for a party that has in the past blasted the NDP for their spending practices and argued they were the better fiscal managers.
Hamish Telford, a political scientist at the University of the Fraser Valley, says it may leave the Liberals' historical core of fiscal conservatives scratching their heads and open them up to a loss of votes where there are Conservative party candidates.
“(Wilkinson) wants to argue that the NDP is not doing enough. That more needs to be done to address the economic recession that we are now in. And so he is proposing to borrow a lot more money to get us out of this economic doldrums that we're in.
“And the Liberal party for 16 years under (former premiers) Gordon Campbell and Christy Clark and finance ministers like Mike de Jong stood for doing less and lowering debt and deficits,” said Telford.
Wilkinson has also faced criticism over his handling of sexist comments by B.C. Liberal Jane Thornthwaite toward NDP candidate Bowinn Ma, and controversy involving LGBTQ+ rights and two Fraser Valley Liberal candidates.
These controversies have hurt Wilkinson in a couple of ways, said Telford.
Firstly, it has derailed his message, forcing him to answer questions about the controversies rather than focus on his policies.
Secondly, with the NDP polling so high, it directly puts normally safe Liberal seats, such as Thornthwaite's North Vancouver- Seymour riding, in jeopardy.
It doesn't help the Liberals' prospects in Metro Vancouver, for example, in ridings such as Vancouver-false Creek where Liberal incumbent Sam Sullivan's seat is at risk of falling, said Telford.
It could also put Fraser Valley ridings that were considered safe for the Liberals in jeopardy, he said.
Of 14 ridings that are key to an NDP majority identified by Postmedia, in 12 of them the NDP have a safe seat, are likely to win or voters are leaning toward the NDP, according to 338Canada.com.
“If these other ridings fall, if (the Liberals) lose ridings in the valley, if they lose North Vancouver- Seymour, you know, this could be an NDP landslide,” said Telford.
Other political observers believe despite the commanding NDP lead in the polls, the seat count will be closer.
“I don't think (the Liberals) are in danger of being obliterated. I think they may lose a few seats. But I think they're still going to be where you'd expect,” said Jeram.
RETURN TO MINORITY?
Furstenau has made a pitch several times that voters should place their support behind the Greens to return another minority government.
She says minority governments produce better, more co-operative governments.
While pundits say she scored some points in the televised debate against Horgan and Wilkinson, the question remains whether the Greens can gain enough support to win any more seats or simply hold the three seats they have on Vancouver Island.
Johnston said Furstenau very smartly made an argument during the debate that if you want a harmonious legislature, you need to vote for the Greens.
The question is, did enough people watch the debate or follow coverage of the debate to have Furstenau's impression make a difference in how they vote, noted Johnston.
And then there's the issue of whether people have already voted with the use of mail-in ballots and can't change their vote if they wanted to, he said.
Nearly 700,000 mail-in ballots have been requested, and as of mid-week Elections B.C. had received 138,000 of those ballots.
With a week to go, said Johnston, all that is left is for the parties to reinforce their messages.
All the pressure was on the Liberals and the Greens to try to break the ... momentum the (NDP) had. And I would say that both have somewhat, at least so far, seem to have failed.