NFL playoff picture in early focus

Fourteen NFL teams will qualify for the post-season this year, up from the usual 12.

Even with 11 weeks still to play, there's a strong likelihood we already know eight of them. Probably nine, actually.

According to the NFL, 80 per cent of teams since 1990 that began a season with a 4-1 record or better wound up making the playoffs. Entering Monday's doubleheader to wrap up Week 6, the following eight teams were 4-1 or better:

In the NFC, Seattle (5-0), Chicago (5-1) and Green Bay (4-1);

In the AFC, Pittsburgh (5-0), Tennessee (5-0), Baltimore (5-1), Kansas City (4-1) and Buffalo (4-1). The latter two played Monday night.

All division champs receive an automatic playoff berth — yes, even the winner of this season's woebegone NFC East. Dallas is the only team in that division with an offence remotely capable of scoring 30 points in any game, so the Cowboys probably for now ought to be considered the ninth likely playoff participant.

If we presume, for the sake of argument and percentages, that all nine of the above teams will make the playoffs, that leaves five other berths.

Fourteen teams, by record, have the best shots at those five spots. Entering Monday night, seven had two losses, seven had three, as follows:

Tampa Bay (4-2), Los Angeles Rams (4-2), New Orleans (3-2) and Arizona (3-2) in the NFC, and Indianapolis (4-2), Cleveland (4-2) and Las Vegas (3-2) in the AFC;

San Francisco (3-3), Carolina (3-3), Detroit (2-3) and aforementioned Dallas (2-3) in the NFC, and Miami (3-3), Denver (2-3) and New England (2-3) in the AFC.

Can you believe we went 262 words into a late October story about likely NFL playoff participants before mentioning the Patriots?

New England finished Week 6 in third place in the AFC East, with its first losing record through five games since October 2001, Tom Brady's first year as an NFL starter. The Pats are now in danger of not making the playoffs for the first time since 2008, which would end their NFL record of consecutive playoff appearances at 11 years.

Look, there's a lot of football yet to be played in 2020. Occasionally a team that starts poorly, even 1-4, makes the playoffs. None of this week's 10 one-win or no-win teams looks capable of it.

Playoff likelihood percentages appear more meaningful than usual this season.

TAMPA BAY DEFENCE BRADY'S NEW BEST BUDS

Most people expected it would take a month or two for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offence to get on track, what with new quarterback Tom Brady learning a new system. They were right.

What people aren't talking about enough — and which bodes at least as well for the Bucs — is the team's defence.

After Week 6 Sunday games, the Bucs ranked No. 1 in the NFL in yards per game allowed (282.0), yards per play (4.6), rushing yards per game (64.3), rushing yards per attempt (3.0) and first downs allowed (16.8), and they're No. 2 in sacks per pass play (22 on 236 dropbacks, or 0.093 per play).

We saw evidence of such statistical mastery on Sunday in Tampa Bay's smashing 38-10 defeat of the previously unbeaten Green Bay Packers.