AN ALL-CANADIAN DIVISION?
With most teams improving, the scenario could be trouble for the Jets
As we slowly turn the page on a 2020 calendar most people would like to throw in the trash, it brings us closer to another NHL season that will look like no other.
Commissioner Gary Bettman has stated the league wants to start a new season on Jan. 1 and many theories have been bandied about as to how that will be possible.
With the Canada-U. S. border remaining closed to non-essential travel until at least Nov. 21, there are many who believe a radical change to the NHL's division structure will be necessary to pull off a season in 2021.
The most likely scenario includes all the Canadian teams playing in one division and limiting travel and games to within the country.
As strange as that may sound for a league that has many of its traditional rivalries spread across the border, it's a somewhat tantalizing prospect for Canadian hockey fans.
Presumably, a one-time thing that's necessary because of the COVID-19 pandemic, a Canadian division in which teams play one another eight or more times during the season would certainly be intriguing.
It will be the Battle of Alberta on steroids.
It will be an age-old Toronto-Montreal rivalry that hearkens back to the pre-expansion, Original Six era when teams played one another 14 times a season.
It will be constant matchups of stars like Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, Elias Petterson and Mark Scheifele.
There's a lot to like about the idea.
It also promises to be ultracompetitive and likely very difficult to make the playoffs, depending on what format the NHL comes up with.
Last season, six of the seven Canadian teams took part in the post-season after the NHL expanded it from 16 to 24 teams and added a play-in round.
The Winnipeg Jets, Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs were eliminated in the play-in round, while the Calgary Flames and Montreal Canadiens dropped out in the first round and the Vancouver Canucks made it to the second round before bowing out. The performances of Montreal and Vancouver in the playoffs suggest they were better than their regular-season records indicated and they should be playoff contenders this year, even if the league goes back to a 16-team format.
The league has said the play-in round was a one-off because of the pandemic and the bubble format it used to keep players safe this past summer, but all options have to be on the table for 2021, given the continued spread of the coronavirus in North America.
The Jets normally play in the Central Division, which is undoubtedly one of the toughest in the NHL, so it could be an advantage for the Jets to get away from the 2020 Stanley Cup finalist Dallas Stars, the 2019 Stanley Cup champion St. Louis Blues and the highly regarded Colorado Avalanche for a season.
The Jets went 11-6-4 in their own division last season and were in fifth place in the Central by winning percentage when the regular season was halted.
They may or may not have been a playoff team had the NHL been able to finish the regular season.
They got into the play-in round as the ninth-best team in the Western Conference.
On the other hand, the Jets went 8-3 against the Canadian teams last season, which is promising, considering how many times they might have to play them in 2021.
But the truth is the Jets also had the fifth-best winning percentage among Canadian teams in 2019-20 and they didn't fare well in the post-season.
Between significant injuries to stars like Scheifele and Patrik Laine and porous defence, the Jets were manhandled by the Flames and fell in just four games.
While the Oilers also were knocked out in the play-in round, they were a stronger team during the regular season and they have two of the NHL's best forwards in McDavid and Hart Trophy winner Leon Draisaitl.
The Leafs were considerably better than the Jets in the regular season as well and the Flames and Canucks, though only marginally better during the season, showed more mettle when it came time for the playoff games.
What we're getting at here is that it's likely going to be very tough for the Jets to make the playoffs in a Canadian division.
So far, it seems, they have not improved enough in this off-season to suggest otherwise. And it's fair to say other teams — particularly Montreal, Ottawa and Toronto — have addressed more of their needs than the Jets have.
Jets general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff did pull off a trade to get a soon-to-be-35-year-old second-line centre in Paul Stastny and he signed big defenceman Derek Forbort and gritty centre Nathan Thompson.
Stastny should help solidify the team's second line — though who knows what it will look like given the persistent trade rumours surrounding sniper Patrik Laine — and Forbort can provide a physical presence and strong penalty killing.
But the Jets can't go into the season with largely the same defence corps and think they're going to be better, can they?
This team still needs a topfour left defenceman before many people will be suggesting they are likely to move up the standings.
Yes, they have a solid group of forwards that should be able to score goals and a Vezina Trophy-winning goaltender in Connor Hellebuyck.
Those two things mean a lot. But they didn't mean enough when the team had such poor overall defensive play.
Meanwhile, the Canadiens, who had a worse record than the Jets last season but went further in the playoffs, added the very things they needed most — size up front — by trading for winger Josh Anderson and signing winger Tyler Toffoli.
The Leafs improved their defence by signing former Flames stalwart TJ Brodie and also former Jet Zach Bogosian. They added size up front in Wayne Simmonds and a future hall of famer in 41-year-old Joe Thornton to play on their fourth line for a mere $700,000.
The Senators aren't likely getting anywhere near the playoffs, but they did pick up goaltender Matt Murray, scoring forward Evgeny Dadonov and agitator Austin Watson.
The Flames solidified their goaltending situation for the first time in a long while by signing Jacob Markstrom to a six-year deal and also signed dependable defenceman Chris Tanev away from Vancouver.
The Oilers failed to improve in goal — and that's a major issue — but they did improve their defence with the highly mobile Tyson Barrie and their third line, with veteran centre Kyle Turris.
Vancouver lost some key pieces — like Markstrom, Tanev and Toffoli — but replaced two of them with Vezina and Stanley Cup winner Braden Holtby and top-pairing defenceman Nate Schmidt.
The Canucks already looked pretty good last season and in the playoffs. Even if Holtby doesn't work out, they still have goalie Thatcher Demko waiting in the wings and they have stars Quinn Hughes and Petterson to build around. They are a team that should continue to rise.
Where does that leave the Jets? Probably a little too close to the status quo.
Of course, we don't know what's going to happen between now and the new season.
A Laine trade certainly seems to be a possibility, no matter how much it will alienate the local fan base.
Any trade would have to bring a high-end defenceman to Winnipeg or it will not be worth it. Perhaps that happens and we all see a marked improvement on defence, at the expense of a high-scoring winger who has not yet reached his potential.
What it might do for the psyche of Winnipeggers is another matter.
This is a city that saw the Jets lose Anders Hedberg and Ulf Nilsson to the New York Rangers, saw star player Kent Nilsson and many others get taken in an expansion draft, saw Dale Hawerchuk get traded, then Teemu Selanne.
Then the whole team moved to Phoenix before getting reincarnated 15 years later after a move by the Atlanta Thrashers.
Since then, the organization has seen Evander Kane ask for a trade and have it granted. Same for Jacob Trouba.
Dustin Byfuglien, likely the most popular player of the last decade, lost his will to play and was suddenly gone.
Now Laine, a second-overall draft pick with a scoring gift and star power may be on the way out?
No matter what the return is, there are going to be fans who are upset by such a move.
If it happens, it's going to leave the Jets in a mode in which proving they can return to the level of their 2018 run to the Western Conference final is make or break.
If they can't, there will surely be firings.
There's an awful lot on the line. And how the Jets fare this season — possibly in an all-Canadian division — just might be the tipping point.