`Safe seats' in play in Fraser Valley
Hamish Telford has had his eye on Langley for some time.
The political scientist has been watching the typically “safe” seats in the Fraser Valley become less certain for conservative parties, including the B.C. Liberals, for several years.
While the party still wins handily in ridings south of the Fraser, including in Langley, Abbotsford and Chilliwack, the margin seems to be gradually narrowing, he said.
And the first to flip could be Langley.
“With the NDP high in the polls, this could be it,” said Telford, who is an associate professor of political science at the University of the Fraser Valley.
Last election, the NDP made a “significant play” for Langley by removing tolls on the Port Mann and Golden Ears bridges, he said. The ridings still went to the Liberals, but the NDP gained ground.
This time, the party is talking transit, with NDP Leader John Horgan promising to complete the $1.5-billion SkyTrain extension to Langley.
It's all designed to tap into the region's changing demographics. Many young professionals and families have fled the city for the suburbs, where they can afford to buy a house. The NDP is counting on its policies on transit, child care and housing affordability to resonate with voters.
On Thursday, with just two days to go before election day, Horgan was in Mission, where Mayor Pam Alexis is running for the NDP against B.C. Liberal Simon Gibson, who is running for re-election.
On Wednesday, he made campaign stops in Abbotsford and Langley.
“After three years, people are looking at the NDP differently,” he said in the backyard of a campaign supporter in Langley.
Facebook advertising data also show the parties are working hard to win Langley. The cost of Facebook ads promoting the NDP and B.C. Liberal candidates in Langley and Langley East adds up to about $4,000 apiece, or more than $16,000 so far.
That puts Langley and Langley East in the fourth and fifth spot in terms of money spent on Facebook ads in individual B.C. ridings, with the party leaders' ridings of Vancouver- Quilchena and Langford-Juan de Fuca in first and second place.
Vote-splitting in Langley East could cause problems for B.C. Liberal candidate Margaret Kunst, with Ryan Warawa, son of the late MP Mark Warawa, running for the B.C. Conservative party, and Langley school board chairwoman Megan Dykeman running for the NDP.
In Langley, B.C. Liberal candidate Mary Polak is hoping to hold onto her seat in a riding that has elected a B.C. Liberal or Social Credit candidate for more than five decades. Polak said she has never considered Langley a safe seat, but admitted, “I know others do.”
Changes to the riding before the last election have made it a tighter race, but demographics are also a big factor.
“There's still a small-town feel ... but that's starting to change,” she said. “We're seeing lots of young families moving here.”
But Polak said it is easy to oversimplify the issues that individuals are concerned about, particularly in regions that tend to vote the same way in most elections.
“I think (the Fraser Valley) is much more diverse than people realize,” she said. “I think in any riding, people ask, `What does this mean for me, where I live?'”
Langley NDP candidate Andrew Mercier said he has seen his riding, particularly the western edge, change “phenomenally” over the years, with single-family homes giving way to more rentals and condos. A renter with a young child, he said he understands issues such as child care and affordability.
Langley voter Danielle Harris and her husband moved to the community in 2015. Both grew up in South Surrey, but couldn't afford to buy a house.
On maternity leave from her job as a nurse, Harris said health care is important to her and she likes the way Horgan has handled the pandemic. “It hasn't been politicized,” she said.
B.C. Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson's promise to eliminate the PST didn't resonate. “Who is going to pay for that? My daughter?” she asked.
Voter Jeff Jacobs has lived in Langley most of his life and said he has noticed an influx of young families and professionals.
A volunteer with the NDP campaign, Jacobs said he feels the B.C. Liberal party became “too comfortable” with winning Langley, leading them to “take the voters for granted.”