O'toole needs big ideas, not just Liberal slips
What goes up must come down, but something coming down doesn't guarantee something else shooting up. Welcome to the non-newtonian game facing federal Conservative Leader Erin O'toole.
Justin Trudeau's ratings might be dropping while vaccines aren't plunging into arms, but O'toole is not rising because of it. At least not yet.
Sensing an opportunity, the Conservative party is using this vaccine-poor moment to take a fresh run at introducing their man to the public, issuing a number of videos highlighting O'toole's life and experience. It makes for a nice story and there's much to like about O'toole. Family man! Patriot! Veteran! Parliamentarian! All right, we'll forgive him that last sin but, by any measure, O'toole's has been a life well lived. He's the kind of person you want in public life. Not that any of this matters, mind you. Sure, there are a tiny few who will watch the O'toole intro video and change their mind, but it won't convince the many. No, to do that, O'toole needs to offer voters something stronger. Like weed.
OK, fine. Justin Trudeau has bogarted the joint story in Canada. Weed is now legal across the land and nothing terrible seems to have happened. But O'toole needs to find his bud and spark up some new discussions in Canadian politics.
Because everyone and their mother knows the Liberals will be reading off an old script come election time, and it will go a little something like this: Stephen Harper, far-right, nasty, scary, guns, abortion, social conservatives, run for your life.
It's a simple script designed to do a very specific job: keep any wavering progressives in the Trudeau camp as Dear Leader spends huge amounts blunting the economic effects of COVID-19. That's the majority Liberal government formula, and a few “Hey guys, it's me, Erin” videos aren't going to stop it from working.
So what will?
Some would argue it's out of O'toole's hands and governments defeat themselves, etc. There is some truth in that view. Paul Martin's Liberals certainly sponsor-shipped themselves out of office. Harper's elbows-up approach to governing worked until it didn't. And Lord knows Trudeau has some black marks to his name and record (and face). But this view overlooks what Harper brought to the table in 2006 and what Trudeau brought when he bested Harper in 2015.
Lest we forget, Harper's GST and direct child-care pledges centred the discussion on questions other than him being the leader of a new and untested party. Trudeau's pledges on deficits, pot and voting reform started conversations other than “Harper sucks.”
The bolder O'toole's policy, the less he'll be framed by reruns of Conservatives (and conservatism) passim. Circumstance is also in favour of a bold approach, as the effects of the coronavirus are broad, profound and potentially long-lasting.
Going big on policy will test Conservative muscles that have largely atrophied since the heady days of 2006. Put simply, the next election won't be won by designing a targeted tax cut for guys named “Barry” from Emo who drive diesel vehicles on Wednesdays. But it might be won if O'toole is brave enough to kick at some of the creaking foundations that have produced some poor outcomes.
Is a business environment incentivized to maximize short-term shareholder returns the right system when most people don't own stocks and the so-called “real” economy is stagnant? Is GDP growth good growth if it relies on casino-like financialization and means panopticons like Amazon, Facebook and Google squeeze Mom and Pop out of the market while hoovering up more knowledge about you than you'd want any government to have?
O'toole says he wants to do more for Canadian workers. But what does that mean? It's time to show, not tell. And if Conservatives value families more, why not park some tanks on Trudeau's lawn by putting a value on the work that's done in the home that doesn't show up in the latest GDP figures?
These ideas might not all be winners, but it's surely better to get stoned for big policy than it is to lose to a tired old script.