COVID-19 has transformed B.C. tourism in unthinkable ways

Many profound changes likely here to stay, say Jock Finlayson and Ed Mansfield.

To say that the province's tourism sector has been hit hard by COVID-19 would be an understatement.

From April 2020 through late fall, the number of international visitors to B.C. plummeted by 96 per cent from the year before, while hotel average occupancies tumbled 70 per cent and average room rates declined by almost half. Year-over-year employment in food-and-beverage services fell by 37 per cent, in accommodation by 46 per cent, and in arts, entertainment and recreation by 48 per cent.

The pandemic has changed global tourism in ways that are profound and likely long-lasting.

Before 2020, tourism in B.C., as in much of the world, enjoyed a long period of rising visitor numbers and steadily growing revenues. But the pandemic transformed the landscape in ways that were previously unimaginable. Extended border closures, cancellations of cruise seasons, widespread public hesitancy to travel and the introduction of new public health protocols are just a few features of the new reality in tourism.

Even optimistic projections don't envision the Canadian domestic tourism market returning to pre-2020 levels before 2022 or 2023, while international markets will take much longer, perhaps to 2026 or 2027, to recover.

Leisure travel is expected to rebound more quickly than business travel. Indeed, some analysts say business travel will be affected permanently, with 20 per cent never coming back.

Since the start of the pandemic, B.C. tourism operators and their workers have looked to governments for financial support. Some, appropriately, has been provided, but it can't continue indefinitely given the scale of government deficits currently being incurred.

Moreover, clever and better-funded marketing campaigns by themselves can't restore visitor demand. If the B.C. industry is to emerge positioned for long-term success, it must act to address its weaknesses, embrace innovation, and develop new tourism assets and experiences.

In short, we believe the time is right to shed some of the sector's traditional reliance on marketing and work toward crafting a postCOVID-19 industrial strategy.

Developing an industrial strategy for B.C. tourism would require long-range thinking and planning that draws on successful practices from other industrial sectors, such as advanced technology, film and TV, agri-food and energy. It would identify the roles that government can play and the tools it has at its disposal, such as taxation regimes, investment incentives and infrastructure programs, to facilitate the sector's growth.

An industrial strategy would address the many key issues that will shape the prospects for tourism in B.C. Here we highlight four:

Create policies that enable the preservation and enhancement of iconic attractions that draw visitors to a region and, in turn, sustain smaller allied tourism businesses.

Develop new tourism infrastructure — especially infrastructure that connects tourism with other sectors. For example, B.C. is a major global film and TV production centre and is home to the largest visual effects (VFX) cluster in the world. The province could explore the establishment of a new museum or centre of screenbased media that would provide a world-class tourism attraction, serve as a springboard for regional film-tourism and showcase B.C.'s expertise.

Introduce strategies to leverage and manage the oncoming rush of automation and AI tools that are predicted to improve tourism operator efficiencies but also trigger significant workforce adjustments.

Implement policies that facilitate the growth of larger B.C.-based tourism businesses that are more resilient to shocks and better equipped for post-pandemic expansion. The pandemic has revealed the economic fragility of sectors like tourism in which the vast majority of businesses are small or micro-enterprises.

We believe that the B.C. tourism industry can come out of the pandemic with renewed dynamism and regain its place as a major contributor to the provincial economy. However, to do so, the sector and provincial policy-makers will need to collaborate and act with foresight.

Forging a forward-looking tourism industrial strategy would be a good first step.