HENRY MESSAGING ENTERS AN ODD NEW FREQUENCY
Health chief's justification for eased rules, emphasized warnings don't quite square up
Two months ago, with the COVID-19 case count resisting all efforts to bend the curve downward, Dr. Bonnie Henry made a plea to everyone in B.C.
“We have plateaued at about 500 new cases of COVID-19 a day. This is too many,” she declared on Jan. 25. “This leaves us at a brink where we can see rapid takeoff, particularly if we start to see any of these new variants starting to transmit in our community.”
Hence her plea: “Less is where we need to go, and I need your help to get there. These next two weeks, I am asking you to do more. Take a step back, stay home, stay away from others, join in our effort to bend our curve.”
The daily case count did dip briefly below 400 during the next few weeks, but within a month it had climbed back to a level well above 500.
Still, she remained optimistic. “We are holding steady this past month,” she told reporters Feb. 23, when the count stood at 559. “This uptick we've seen in the last few days is one that we are managing as aggressively as we can to understand better where we are.”
By March 4, with the case count at 564, Dr. Henry continued to sound upbeat. “Brighter days are ahead,” she said, referring to the promise of the vaccines. Even so, she allowed a moment of doubt. “Maybe I am too optimistic,” she conceded, quoting the well-worn military doctrine that, “No plan survives first contact with the enemy.”
March 11 was the anniversary of the World Health Organization officially declaring a global pandemic. With B.C.'s daily case count still in the high 500s, Dr. Henry marked the occasion by relaxing guidelines for outdoor gatherings and local travel.
There were caveats: no more than 10, don't mix bubbles, maintain physical distancing, protect elders, explore your region, go to your cabin if it is self-contained.
Still, the main take-away was eased restrictions. Why, with the case count stuck at well above 500?
“As the weather gets better, we know we're heading into the period where the transmissibility will decrease and we need that social connection. Right now, what we can do is safely move outside for some of those connections,” Dr. Henry explained.
Plus, British Columbians needed a break. “It is important — after all these months that we have put in trying to prevent the spread — that we need to focus on some of the things we can do, and do safely. … We need these opportunities, particularly for young people over this coming March Break.”
After B.C. racked up more than 1,500 new cases from March 13 to 15, Dr. Henry conceded that “the number is still very high, much higher than I would like it to be.” But she continued to urge people to focus “on what we can do together in small groups outdoors.” She also signalled that a plan was in the works to relax the restrictions on faith gatherings.
On March 18, the case count topped 600 while the more transmissible variants were growing as a share of total cases. “We have a smaller margin of error for our individual actions to prevent transmission,” Dr. Henry warned.
On Monday, March 22, Dr. Henry reported that over the previous three days, the province had logged almost 1,800 cases and another 16 deaths. This occasioned a round of warnings.
To businesses: “We will take all the necessary steps, including closing businesses where we are seeing ongoing transmission.” To miscreants: “If you are blatantly disregarding those public health orders, there are ramifications.”
But when asked why some people no longer seemed to be listening to her directives, Dr. Henry was her usual, forgiving self.
“It has been a bleak winter,” she told reporters. “It has been hard for everybody. But we are into a hopeful spring and we need to focus on the things we can do. Go outside and play.”
Had the much-dreaded third wave of the pandemic arrived? “I have never been a big fan of the wave analogy,” said Dr. Henry. “But we are at a level that keeps me awake at night, for sure.”
Three days later, the case count stood at 800. Dr. Henry paused to answer a frequently asked question: Why are we seemingly easing restrictions when we are seeing a definite upward trend in cases?
“It's really not about easing restrictions as much as recognizing that at this phase in the pandemic, we need to focus on those things that we can do safely,” she told reporters Thursday. “The other thing we have learned is that the vaccines we have are very effective at protecting people, and particularly protecting seniors and elders who are most at risk.”
Having justified relaxing the rules, she then mixed messages with the need for continued caution: “Between now and the end of April, early May, is going to be a very difficult time for us.”
On Friday, the case count topped 900. Then, this Monday, after reporting about 2,500 cases over three days, she finally lowered the boom, toughening some restrictions and putting off the relaxation of others.
“In the last six days, we have seen the start of exponential growth in new cases,” said Dr. Henry.
“We need a circuit breaker to stop this virus now.”
At last. But one has to wonder, with all due respect, what took so long?
After reporting about 2,500 cases over three days, she finally lowered the boom.