12 OUTRAGEOUS (BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE) PREDICTIONS FOR THE 2021 MLB SEASON
Blue Jays could lead the American League in wins, say Neil Greenberg and Scott Allen.
Predictably, last year's pandemic-shortened Major League Baseball season featured some surprising names and numbers among the league leaders, along with a few unexpected playoff teams. How much should you read into that 60-game sample when forecasting 2021's back-tonormal 162-game slate?
These predictions are a degree more ridiculous than your typical pre-season bold predictions, which often aren't especially bold. While rooted in analysis and based, in part, on last year's performances, they're supposed to be more fun than serious.
Here are 12 things that probably won't (but maybe will!) happen this season:
AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
THE BLUE JAYS WILL LEAD THE AL IN WINS
Why it could happen: After going 32-28 last season while playing home games in Buffalo because of Canada's coronavirus restrictions, Toronto was active in free agency, adding outfielder George Springer, infielder Marcus Semien and relievers Kirby Yates, Tyler Chatwood and David Phelps (though Yates had Tommy John surgery this past week, which will force him to miss the season). Toronto is somewhat thin in its rotation after Hyun-Jin Ryu, with injured top prospect Nate Pearson unlikely to be ready by Opening Day, but the lineup could be among the best in the AL. Cavan Biggio, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — Toronto's trio of sons of former major-leaguers — are primed to make the leap.
Why it probably won't: The Blue Jays are estimated to win about 87 games, based on composite projections from Baseball Prospectus, Davenport, FiveThirtyEight and FanGraphs. Since MLB expanded to 30 teams in 1998, the AL leader (over a full 162-game season) has ranged from 95 to 116 wins. Toronto has just a six-per-cent chance of winning 95 games or more, according to projections, and a two-per-cent chance of reaching 100 wins. The Yankees project to have the most wins in the AL with 98.
RANDY AROZARENA WILL WIN AL MVP
Why it could happen: Arozarena is the favourite to win American League rookie-of-the-year honours, but the 26-year-old Tampa Bay outfielder has already demonstrated the skills to win an even more impressive award. After being called up by the Rays Aug. 30, Arozarena hit seven homers in 23 games, earning a spot on the post-season roster. In 20 playoff games, Arozarena hit .377 with an on-base percentage of .442 and a slugging percentage of .831. He had 10 homers, 19 runs scored and 14 RBIs, setting the major league record for hits (29), home runs and total bases (64) in a single post-season while leading the Rays to the AL pennant. The encore could be special.
Why it probably won't: Over the past decade (excluding the shortened 2020 season), the eventual AL MVP has produced at least seven wins above replacement. Arozarena is projected by FanGraphs to accumulate about two wins above replacement, a far cry from an MVP-calibre year.
AL CENTRAL
SHANE BIEBER WILL STRIKE OUT 300 BATTERS
Why it could happen: Bieber, who won the AL Cy Young Award last season, has steadily improved his strikeout rate, from 24 per cent in 2018 to 30 per cent in 2019 to a gaudy 41 per cent over the shortened 2020 campaign. Barring injury, it's not outlandish to believe the 25-year-old could lead all starters in strikeout rate again, and become the sixth pitcher to reach the 300-strikeout mark since 2015. Why it probably won't: Bieber is projected to strike out 11 batters per nine innings in 2021. To eclipse 300 strikeouts, he would have to hit that rate over 250 innings, despite never pitching more than 2141/3 innings at the major league level.
ALBERTO MONDESI WILL STEAL 70 BASES.
Why it could happen: It has been 12 years since Jacoby Ellsbury became the last player to steal 70 or more bases in a season. Only three players have done it this century. Getting to 60 would be a rare feat, but Mondesi has the wheels to do it, provided he gives himself the opportunity with his bat. (You can't steal first base.) Sixteen of Mondesi's MLB-best 24 steals last season came over his last 22 games, during which he hit .376 with a 1.130 on-baseplus-slugging percentage, raising his average to .256 after a brutal start.
Why it probably won't: If Mondesi can maintain his 82-per-cent success rate from the past five seasons, he would still need 86 stolen base attempts to successfully swipe 70. He has never had more than 50 attempts in a season. His career on-base percentage is also a woeful .284.
AL WEST
MARINERS END A 19-YEAR POST-SEASON DROUGHT
Why it could happen: The lineup, anchored by AL rookie of the
year Kyle Lewis and third baseman Kyle Seager, will get a boost from the return of Mitch Haniger and Tom Murphy, who both missed all of last season, and top prospect Jarred Kelenic, who should be promoted by June. The Mariners addressed their dreadful bullpen with a few minor moves and have the makings of a solid — if potentially inconsistent — rotation, with Marco Gonzales, Yusei Kikuchi and James Paxton leading the way.
Why it probably won't: Seattle is projected to win 72 games this season, a win rate that gives it about a four-per-cent chance to reach the playoffs. FanGraphs estimates the chances are closer to three per cent.
THE ASTROS WILL FINISH BELOW .500.
Why it could happen: After winning the AL pennant in two of the previous three years, the Astros finished 29-31 last season, although they still qualified for the playoffs. Despite losing Springer in free agency, Houston returns with the bulk of its offensive weapons. If the Astros stumble, it probably will be because of problems with the starting rotation.
Why it probably won't: Houston's consensus projection is 92 wins, 11 games above .500. For them to swoon enough to dip below that would be a surprise.
NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
RONALD ACUNA JR. WILL GO 40-40
Why it could happen: After stealing 37 bases in 156 games in 2019, Acuna swiped only eight bags in last year's shortened season. Manager Brian Snitker told reporters this month that his star outfielder was “carrying some extra weight” last year. Expect a slimmer Acuna to get back to his running ways as he looks to become the fifth major-leaguer to hit at least 40 homers and swipe at least 40 bases and the first since Alfonso Soriano for the Washington Nationals in 2006.
Why it probably won't: The 23-year-old Acuna is projected to hit 42 home runs and steal 30 bases, so his enshrinement in the 40-40 club isn't too far-fetched. He had an 80-per-cent success rate when he stole 37 bases in 2019. To reach 40 stolen bases at that rate, he would need 50 attempts, a mark only 11 players have reached over the past five full seasons.
THE MARLINS WILL RETURN TO THE PLAYOFFS
Why it could happen: The Marlins were one of the biggest surprises of 2020, qualifying for the expanded post-season with a 31-29 record. Still in the midst of a rebuild, Miami didn't exactly break the bank during the off-season, with Adam Duvall being their most notable addition. It doesn't help that they play in what figures to be baseball's most competitive division.
Why it probably won't: The Marlins' most optimistic win projection for 2021 is 73 wins, and the average of major forecasts shows a projected record of 70-92.
NL CENTRAL
THE PIRATES WILL LOSE 110 GAMES.
Why it could happen: The Pirates lost 93 games in 2019 and an MLB-worst 41 games in last year's 60-game season. Rookie third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes flashed his star potential after his call-up in September, but Pittsburgh spent the off-season trading away key contributors. Why it probably won't: Since 1961, the first year of the 162game regular season, just 10 teams have lost at least that many in a season.
CHRISTIAN YELICH WILL WIN THE BATTING TITLE
Why it could happen: He has done it twice before, leading the NL in hitting in 2018 and 2019 before his nosedive to a .205 average over 58 games last year, a career low and the sixth-worst mark among hitters qualifying for the batting title.
Why it probably won't: Yelich's strikeout percentage last year (30.8 per cent) was nearly 10 percentage points higher than his career average while his contact rate (66 per cent) was down five percentage points from 2019.
NL WEST
TREVOR BAUER WILL POST A SUB-2.00 ERA.
Why it could happen: Bauer posted a career-low 1.73 ERA with Cincinnati last season en route to his first Cy Young Award. After signing a three-year, US$102 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the righthander could become the first pitcher to post sub-2.00 ERAs in consecutive seasons since his new teammate, Clayton Kershaw, accomplished the feat in 2013 and 2014.
Why it probably won't: Bauer was the king of pop-ups last year. His pitches produced a major league-high 17 per cent pop-up rate, more than double the MLB average (seven per cent) and almost double his rate from 2019 (nine per cent). But the pop-up, which is almost a sure out, is largely out of a pitcher's control. In other words, that sub-2.00 ERA required plenty of luck.
FERNANDO TATIS JR. WILL LEAD THE NL IN HOMERS
Why it could happen: Tatis, who hit 22 home runs in his injuryshortened rookie year in 2019 and 17 last year, is poised for a breakout and an uptick in power. The 22-year-old shortstop, who signed a 14-year contract extension in February, led the majors last season in hard-hit rate, with 62 per cent of his batted balls reaching 95 m.p.h. or more.
Why it probably won't: FanGraphs is forecasting 36 home runs, tied for sixth in the NL. To get to 42 homers, a mark that would have won the NL home run crown in eight of the past 10 full seasons, Tatis probably would need a bit of luck.