B.C.'S vaccinated population awaits word on next steps
More than 46 per cent of the 4.3 million eligible British Columbians have now received their first COVID-19 vaccination.
If B.C. keeps up its current pace of vaccinations — about one per cent of the eligible population per day — in another month as much as 70 per cent or more of eligible British Columbians may have received their first jab.
So what happens then?
Is it enough for the province to return to some semblance of normalcy?
Not likely. Not yet, anyway. The B.C. government hasn't said when restrictions might be lifted. Recent modelling released by the Canadian government shows that lifting restrictions by the summer would require 75 per cent of adults to have received at least a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and 20 per cent of Canadians their second shot.
In B.C., only two per cent of residents have had a second dose.
The vaccine uptake has been good in British Columbia in the higher age groups, with 83 per cent of those aged 70 years and older choosing to be vaccinated, but how that will roll out in those younger is not known, say scientists in B.C.
There is no simple answer to the question of exactly how or when the province can return to normalcy, said Simon Fraser University epidemiologist Caroline Colijn.
When the province gets to 75 per cent of eligible residents having received a first dose of vaccine, people potentially could be allowed to dine inside restaurants again with health and safety rules in place, said Colijn.
Those rules include reduced capacity and barriers set up between tables.
“But we won't be able to just completely wipe out the memory of the pandemic from our daily lives and reopen everything,” said Colijn, a Canada 150 research chair in mathematics for evolution, infection and public health.
That's because it may take more than 75 per cent of people getting their first vaccination, as infections are now driven by mutations of the virus that spread more rapidly and present more severe symptoms, said Colijn.
It will also require younger age groups to be vaccinated, noted University of B.C. epidemiologist Daniel Coombs.
The Pfizer-biontech vaccine was just approved by Health Canada for use in teens ages 12-16, but approval for those under 12 isn't expected until the spring of 2022.
Those under 16 make up about 15 per cent of the population. Only about one-third of B.C.'S population has been vaccinated when the younger age group is included.
The rate of hospitalizations and intensive care stays will also need to come down before restrictions are lifted, said Coombs, who has expertise in mathematical models of pandemic growth and control.
It's hard to put an exact number on where hospitalizations need to be in order to lift restrictions, as it depends on how many people are admitted and discharged each day, said Coombs.
However, he expects hospitalizations to be down by the end of May, with the possibility of some restrictions being lifted in June, perhaps allowing larger groups outside and a limited number of people from outside a household to visit inside.
The provincial government has said little about exactly when, or how, it might lift restrictions as more of the population becomes vaccinated.
“We're preparing, obviously, for the future, but we can't get ahead of ourselves here,” B.C. Health Minister Adrian Dix said recently. “Right now we have to focus on no non-essential travel, we need to focus on the public health guidance and rules.”
Those rules include a ban on gathering indoors with anyone outside of your household.
British Columbia and Canada, like other jurisdictions in the world, have been experiencing a third wave of rising infections.
Daily case numbers have started to come down, but hospitalizations remain at record levels in B.C.
Countries that have the highest percentage of the population fully vaccinated, including the U.K. and Israel, are opening up cautiously, using a phased approach.
In the U.K., where about 50 per cent of residents have had a first dose, restrictions vary across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. In England, six people or two households can meet outside, for example, but no mixing is allowed indoors with people not in your household or bubble.
The next relaxation of restrictions, expected by mid-may, would allow groups of 30 outdoors and up to six people indoors.
Scientists say the good news is that there's growing evidence the COVID-19 vaccines not only prevent serious illness, but also help prevent transmission.
Recent data released by Public Health England showed that COVID-19 vaccines deployed there can cut transmission of the virus in households by up to half. As vaccinations have risen, the U.K. has seen a huge drop in daily cases and hospitalizations.