Behold the team that Dubas built
Young GM changed his way of thinking to assemble deeper, stronger Leafs roster
The maturation of Kyle Dubas as a hockey man and NHL general manager began with the personal acknowledgment that he had to change.
It wasn't unlike what happened to Alex Anthopoulos in his final seasons with the Toronto Blue Jays. Anthopoulos had grown up with numbers, thought they were all that mattered in baseball, studied them, and based almost all his decisions on what the charts and graphs told him.
And when it didn't work, and it didn't work again, he realized there was a human element involved that was missing — a heartbeat of a team that was lacking. That's when he went looking for Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin, players who had won in other places and needed to introduce winning to the Blue Jays.
Dubas used to be all about speed and skill and puck possession. And more speed. And more skill. Size and physical play be damned.
But that got him and the Maple Leafs nowhere in his first two seasons on the job. That and a lack of depth were problematic. Last August, when Jake Muzzin went down to injury against Columbus in the elimination round before the real playoffs began, the thinness of the Leafs lineup became apparent.
They brought in Martin Marincin to replace Muzzin on a defence that already included a struggling Tyson Barrie, a limited Cody Ceci, and a young Travis Dermott.
Marincin played the final three games of the five-game series against the Blue Jackets. Today, he's no better than the 10th defenceman in the organization. Dubas walked away from last season's disappointment knowing he couldn't be caught short-handed again.
He went out and signed TJ Brodie, and what a signing that has been. Now he has a shutdown pairing in Muzzin and Justin Holl, while Brodie complements Morgan Rielly.
After that, coach Sheldon Keefe has decisions to make on defence, beginning with Rasmus Sandin and, if he's healthy, Zach Bogosian, for their playoff opener next week.
Of the six defenceman the Leafs finished last season with, four have been replaced. That's Dubas' comprehension of not just the need for having better players, but also the post-Muzzin requirement of having depth that can carry the team through any set of circumstances.
They'll probably have Dermott, who has been a regular most of the season, sitting out to begin the post-season. They'll probably have Ben Hutton, a 28-yearold veteran of 377 NHL games, sitting out. They'll have former first-round pick, Timothy Liljegren, available if needed.
The Leafs are at eight defencemen deep heading to the playoffs. Nine if you believe in Liljegren.
If you had asked Dubas to take a polygraph test five years ago, with two questions, the answers might be very different than they would be today.
Question 1: What do you think of the dump-and-chase?
Question 2: Do you believe in a checking line?
Like most progressive hockey minds, he doesn't care for the dump-and-chase game. Why give up the puck when you already have it? But if you watch the Leafs now, their first two lines don't necessarily dump the puck in old school, but their third and fourth lines certainly do. The third line, when at its best this season, was controlling the puck either by carrying it across the blue line or dumping it in with a strong forecheck, utilizing its speed. And it has worked for the Leafs.
Whether it's forwards Wayne Simmonds bearing down on a defenceman or gangly Ilya Mikheyev, it's a challenge for the opposing team. It's a challenge if Alex Kerfoot approaches with speed or if it's Riley Nash.
There are all kinds of options for coach Keefe in his bottom-six forwards. That's with the understanding that Zach Hyman and Nick Foligno will both be playing important roles on the first two lines.
The Leafs have at least 16 reasonable choices to fill 12 spots at forward. There's a lot of mix and match opportunity available here.
If everyone is healthy, there doesn't seem to be regular places for Alex Galchenyuk, Pierre Engvall and Adam Brooks, all of whom have contributed significantly at times.
The Leafs' depth, age, experience and flexibility should be a strength for the playoff longhaul and should provide them an advantage no other Canadian team will have.
What Dubas has done since August is to strengthen and deepen a team that wasn't good enough when it mattered. It isn't easy as a general manager to admit your team needed Joe Thornton and Simmonds and a return of Spezza, players who have had their best days, in a game that's getting younger. It isn't easy to admit that to your own leadership group.
And you wonder what might have happened had Dubas trusted himself enough to fire Mike Babcock when he first considered it — after losing the series to Boston in 2019? That was his initial instinct. The instinct was correct in hiring Keefe.
Keefe immediately put Auston Matthews with Mitch Marner and hasn't looked back. This is the most complete Leafs team in 20 years, maybe more.
Dubas was promoted to GM three years ago Tuesday. This is his roster now, his coach, his team. Maybe it's his time.