RECOVERY PRICIER THAN PREVENTION
BILLIONS IN SPENDING NEEDED
Postmedia's findings underscore the colossal scope and huge cost of what is needed to harden communities to climate change.
The $7.7 billion for flood protection (an underestimate) and $6 billion for forest thinning to reduce wildfire risks pushes the total to well over $13 billion.
Communities desperately need more money.
Lori Daniels, a forestry professor at UBC with expertise in wildfire, said the province has long decided that it should mitigate the catastrophic consequences of earthquakes. During a 15-year period up to 2015, $17 billion was spent on seismic upgrades for schools, hospitals, roads and bridges, said Daniels, citing a provincial report from the time.
“When we recognize it as a priority, we find ways to make it work. … There has to be this urgency” for adaptation to climate change.
Right now, spending is skewed toward response.
Between 2008 and 2021, a 14year period, B.C. spent $4.16 billion fighting fires, according to the B.C. Wildfire Service.
During that period, the province spent just five per cent of that amount on reducing wildfire risk in and around communities, about $224 million, according to an analysis by Postmedia based on independent reports, government responses and cost estimates.
And the cost of wildfires goes well beyond firefighting.
It can include loss of habitat and wildlife, damage to watersheds, destroyed carbon storage, decreased home value and harm to health and mental health.
Analysis from California estimates adding these costs can ratchet up the total cost of a fire by an order of magnitude: $1.8 billion in expanded costs for the 2013 Rim fire in California compared with $127 million in firefighting costs.
Robert Gray, a wildfire ecologist and consultant, says the true cost of wildfires in B.C. in a bad year is $10 billion or more.
“This stuff really adds up. … So, to spend $6 billion to get ahead (by reducing wildfire risk), that's nothing,” says Gray, who has written on the topic for the International Association for Fire Ecology, the Nature Conservancy and others.
The story is no different for floods.
The B.C. and federal governments — Ottawa contributes to flood protection — have already announced more than $7 billion for response and recovery after last year's floods.
In Abbotsford, for example, Braun, the mayor, estimates response and recovery costs will total about $150 million, separate from what is needed to improve flood protection.
B.C. also announced that farmers will be able to tap into $228 million in provincial-federal aid for damages from the flooding.
These figures don't account for the cost of repairing provincial roads and bridges, forecast to be in the billions, easily pushing the response and recovery costs in 2021 to more than $10 billion from flooding alone.
That figure dwarfs estimated provincial-federal spending on flood mitigation since 2008 of $549 million, according to a calculation by Postmedia based on responses from the province and archived spending announcements.
Glenn Mcgillivray, managing director of the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, an independent research institute affiliated with Western University in London, Ont., says a key problem is that disasters are treated like temporary blips.
“So we ride by the seat of our pants. We wing it. And we say that we never saw it coming. But that's not true. And we know that these things are going to start happening more frequently,” says Mcgillivray,
ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF WORK
The floodwaters that swept over the Fraser Valley in November had a devastating effect on farmers, destroying crops and killing livestock.
Among properties that were hit was the Khakh family's farm in Abbotsford. The family lost a brussels sprouts crop and the floodwaters, ranging up to almost two metres deep, also damaged housing for seasonal workers.
The third-generation farm family was still working on cleanup in mid-april. And the family is now contending with a cool spring, which is holding back planting of some crops, including the brussels sprouts.
All of it puts the threat of climate change in stark relief, particularly the possibility of more frequent and severe rains and floods in the future, says Gagan Khakh.
It's why it's imperative that flood protection be improved, he said.
Khakh believes the province should determine the highest priority areas for flood protection — and focus funding there — including in Abbotsford.
Khakh has a short answer to when improvement should take place. “Right away.”
But the focus now is on cleanup and recovery. It's not clear how the B.C. government will tackle building up climate resiliency — or how much the province and Ottawa are willing to spend on prevention.
Immediately after last November's disastrous flooding, B.C. Premier John Horgan and Public Safety Minister Mike Farnworth acknowledged that more work — and more money — was needed to reduce the risks of climate change. “That work has been underway and is going to continue being underway and is very much a priority,” said Farnworth.
Recently, Farnworth and federal Public Safety Minister Bill Blair reiterated that position.
But how those decisions will be made — or a timeline — has not been set.
In January, the province agreed to work with municipalities to review its financial relationship with local governments. That came after a 2021 Union of B.C. Municipalities report that called for a percentage of the provincial carbon tax to go to local governments to pay for climate-change mitigation and adaptation.
There is no timeline for a decision or a guarantee of changes from that review.
After the extreme flooding in November, Metro Vancouver mayors created a task force to provide recommendations to work on a Lower Mainland flood management strategy, started in 2016, which is being facilitated by the non-profit Fraser Basin Council.
That strategy — a combined effort of provincial, federal, municipal and First Nation governments and other agencies such as YVR — is more than three years overdue.
Following a meeting in mid-april of a new committee of provincial and federal ministers created to address climate resilience, both Blair and Farnworth spoke of the need to work co-operatively with all levels of government, including with First Nations, to determine climate resilience priorities and carry them out.
“It is about looking at the priorities and ensuring that a system that allows us not only to prioritize properly, but also to recognize that different parts of the province will have different needs,” said Farnworth.
Added Blair: “There is obviously an enormous amount of work that needs to be done. And we want to make sure that we invest those limited dollars in the greatest public good.”
STRATEGIC SHIFT REQUIRED
Experts suggest the province needs a strategic shift in how it addresses adapting to and reducing the risks of floods and wildfires.
That includes targeting spending at areas that have higher risks to wildfire and floods, instead of funding driven by the ad hoc nature of grants, which may not be handed out by priority.
Postmedia found that virtually all communities dislike the ad hoc nature of grant applications where they do not know from year to year whether they will get money. Applying for grants every year eats up their scarce resources, especially for small communities.
It also makes communities compete with one another, and the funding criteria do not always meet their needs.
A 2021 consultant's report prepared for a Lower Mainland flood strategy concluded that “there is a failure of the current flood risk governance structure” and suggested that some centralization of activities is needed, after responsibility for flood control was downloaded onto municipalities in 2004.
Braun, the Abbotsford mayor, compared applying for grants to going to a casino in Las Vegas.
“You cannot do long-term planning on a grant application program because you don't know from year to year if you're going to get anything or one-tenth of what you asked for.”
Braun says, as have officials in other communities such as Delta, that it's not fair for the province to increase dike standards but then not fund the work properly.
There is also a need for more regional planning and collaboration among all players, particularly when it comes to wildfires, which need the involvement of all levels of government, First Nations, private landowners, and the forest industry, say experts and those with communities at risk.
Tyrone Mcneil, chairman of a First Nations emergency planning secretariat and the Sto:lo Tribal Council chief, says there should be a partnership among provincial, federal and First Nation governments, in his case a group representing 31 Coast Salish communities.
More involvement of local governments is needed in regional strategies, he says.
“It makes so much sense to get together. Why would we do this individually?” asks Mcneil.
Other suggestions to strengthen the province's grasp on building flood and wildfire resiliency include creating an independent scientific advisory body to come up with a strategic plan with alternatives, and a provincial framework that prioritizes First Nation decision-making to ensure fish-friendly and nature-based approaches.
“Our institutions are not well-designed to handle interrelated complex problems,” notes Alex Boston, executive director of Simon Fraser University's renewable cities program.
He says while the province and some players have acknowledged what has happened, they have not reached the next step of aligning aspiration with strategy.
Gray, the wildfire ecologist, says what is needed is a quarterback.
“In B.C., we do not have a co-ordinated strategy that's pulling in all the various bits and pieces under one umbrella.”
ESTABLISH A NEW, STABLE REVENUE STREAM
A B.C. government-commissioned review of the 2017 flood and wildfire season concluded the province should be more aggressive in spending on risk reduction before emergencies happen.
The authors were George Abbott, a former B.C. Liberal cabinet minister, and Maureen Chapman, the Skawahlook First Nation chief.
They suggested B.C. use its carbon tax to establish a new, predictable and stable revenue stream for enhanced prevention and preparedness. This fiscal year, B.C.'S carbon tax is expected to bring in $2.3 billion.
That has not happened. Their independent review also called for the province to use the Forest Enhancement Society of B.C. as the primary public entity to deliver publicly subsidized fuel thinning to reduce wildfire risk in and round communities.
The society, a Crown agency, has spent about $55.5 million on wildfire risk projects since its creation in 2016, according to information it provided to Postmedia. The agency says it has driven down costs to as low as $250,000 a square kilometre.
While the B.C. government has indicated in the recent budget it will provide more funding to the society, it has also decided to beef up funding of the B.C. Wildfire Service with an additional $58 million in 2022.
Part of that funding is intended to go toward fuel thinning, but it is not clear how that work will be carried out and provincial forestry officials could not say how much work was planned.
“We are progressively building capacity among our partners,” Forests Ministry spokesman Nigel Mcinnis said in a statement.
Another independent report, nearly two decades old, Firestorm 2003, headed by former Manitoba premier Gary Filmon, called for the province to require local governments to implement building and land use measures to reduce the effect of wildfire in high-risk zones.
The practices remain voluntary. Some communities, such as the District of North Vancouver, have implemented development permit areas in wildfire risk zones, requiring new buildings to have fire-rated roofs, siding and landscaping. But other municipalities have not.
The Regional District of OkanaganSimilkameen, which includes the communities of Osoyoos and Oliver threatened by wildfire last year, rejected a 2021 move to do so.
In a public post, the regional district cited concerns about the cost and ineffectiveness of implementing the change and suggested it should fall to the province to address the issue through building code changes.
Abbott, the former B.C. cabinet minister, said local, provincial and federal governments have many pressures and scarce public dollars, and face added financial challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic, but it's clear governments need to make risk-reduction investments to combat the effects of climate change.
Any progress will hinge on partnerships, starting with the provincial and federal governments, and depend on multi-year, dedicated resources, said Abbott, who has a PHD in political science from the University of Victoria.
He continues to argue for the carbon tax as a funding source — and believes the tax itself would get broader support if it was used to help communities protect themselves against fire and flood.
“I think it is critical for dealing with this effectively,” said Abbott. “Now is the time.”
`MORE ON TOP OF THIS'
It seems like the consequences of doing nothing are writ large in Monte Lake.
An unincorporated community, it falls under the auspices of the Thompson-nicola Regional District.
The district has done fuel thinning to reduce wildfire risk in and around communities, but none since 2016 and none in Monte Lake, according to information provided by the district and a Postmedia analysis of municipal and provincial reporting.
When the fire ripped through the area, 62 structures were burned, including 31 primary residences and 29 seasonal homes and outbuildings, according to information provided to Postmedia by Emergency Management B.C.
On a sunny day in mid-march, Ben Campbell was building a new home.
The pale wood-frame walls, roof and deck gleamed atop a concrete foundation. There will be a beautiful view of the valley and mountain to the west, although it is scarred now by fire.
Campbell said there was a time when he had considered not returning because of the devastation.
Above his property, the thick brush between the bigger timber had burned. Red needles now dot the ground. He has cut down the worst burned trees — black sticks — that remained. Roots burned deep in the soil for weeks.
Says Campbell as he surveys the fire's aftermath: We “have to be more on top of this.”
The land immediately behind his property is Crown land, so Campbell could not have touched it to reduce the wildfire risk.
That authority lay in others' hands.
In B.C., we do not have a co-ordinated strategy that's pulling in all the various bits and pieces under one umbrella.