COMMUNITIES NEED SOLUTIONS, MONEY
The recovery and repair costs from November's flood are expected to be in the millions.
Princeton isn't alone. Dozens of communities aren't keeping up.
Provincial efforts have fallen far short of what is needed to properly prepare for and reduce risks from an expected rise in the frequency and intensity of floods and wildfires in the face of climate change. A four-month Postmedia investigation found a majority of B.C. communities do not have a comprehensive, costed, flood-mitigation plan. For those that have a costed plan, the total bill tops $7.74 billion.
Local governments, responsible for much of the mitigation work after the province reduced its role in 2003, face huge costs they cannot pay, putting people, homes, businesses and infrastructure at increasing risk.
“There was this sense of surprise in November, as if we didn't know this could happen,” said Lilia Yumagulova, a resilience scholar who wrote her University of B.C. PhD thesis on Metro Vancouver's flood management system. “But we've known for years that B.C. has a flood-management problem.”
MANY DIKES DON'T MEET CURRENT DESIGN STANDARDS
The impact of severe flooding may be shocking, but it shouldn't be surprising, particularly in the Lower Mainland.
For the better part of a decade, the Fraser Basin Council has been working on a Lower Mainland flood strategy. The first phase of the project, released in 2016, provides an overview of the state of flood mitigation work and what's at risk in the region.
From Hope to the Salish Sea, the majority of Fraser River dikes don't meet current design standards, said Steve Litke, senior manager responsible for Basin Council programs on watershed and water resources.
A 2015 assessment found 71 per cent of the region's dikes are “vulnerable to failure by overtopping” during a major Fraser River or coastal flood. Only four per cent of assessed dike segments meet provincial standards for dike crest height, which is set to protect against a 500-year freshet flood or a 200-year winter coastal storm surge flood.
As a result of climate change, experts believe what is now considered a 500-year flood, meaning a river level that in the past occurred once in 500 years, could become more frequent. And what were once 100-year floods could happen every 10 or 20 years, or even annually in some places.
As a result, major river dikes in the Netherlands are now designed to withstand a 2,500-year flood, while sea defences near urban areas are designed for a 10,000-year storm surge flood.
Most B.C.'s dikes would be unable to withstand a 500-year flood.
If the 1894 Fraser River “flood of record” happened today, it would “trigger the most costly natural disaster in Canadian history,” according to the Fraser Basin Council report, causing about $23 billion in actual damage in Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, as well as severe economic fallout. With sea level rise and climate change-related flow increases, a flood of the same size in 2100 would cause about $32.7 billion in damage.
“The upshot of it is, we've got a problem,” said Litke. “We've got to get ahead of it.”
But, he admitted, the second phase of the Basin Council's work has become mired in complexity.
A draft report on the regional flood strategy, which was intended to outline agreement on flood mitigation, priorities, actions, costs and a cost-sharing model, was slated for release in 2019. Almost three years later, there is no clear schedule for its release, although some communities continue to wait for it before taking action, including Port Coquitlam and the Township of Langley.
Litke said the second phase has been extended because of some “sticky issues,” including jurisdiction, disagreement among interested parties on how to set priorities, and funding challenges. Local First Nations have expressed frustration with the process and some have pulled back from discussions.
There is no schedule for Phase 3, which was intended to focus on implementation from 2020 onward.
Litke said a cost estimate has not been done to raise and widen dikes in the Lower Mainland. A 2012 estimate, based only on the dikes downstream of the Port Mann Bridge, pegged it at $9.5 billion, with one-third going to design and construction, one-third to land acquisition and one-third for seismic upgrades to a small number of dikes. Upstream of the bridge, Abbotsford alone is considering flood protection options, one of which could cost $2.8 billion.
“This is obviously beyond the ability of local governments. There is a need for longer-term funding.”
A PATCHWORK SYSTEM
Across B.C., communities are almost totally reliant on higher levels of government to fund flood protection and mitigation work through grant funding.
Since the NDP took office in 2017, the province has provided $123 million for 342 flood risk reduction projects, including floodplain mapping, risk assessments, mitigation plans and actual mitigation work through a variety of programs, including federal-provincial cost-sharing partnerships.
But with more than $7.74 billion needed to protect B.C. communities, it's a drop in the bucket.
Several local governments told Postmedia the ad hoc nature of grant applications means they don't know from year-to-year whether they will get money, making it difficult to carry out complex work. Several have been denied grants. And, particularly for smaller communities, the grant application process eats up scarce resources and pits communities against other communities that are also seeking the same limited funds.
“It's a patchwork system,” said resilience scholar Yumagulova. “Every community is trying to figure out the solution that is best for them and how to pay for it.”
There are examples across the province.
The City of Delta, which is protected by more than 60 kilometres of dikes, was recently turned down for $10 million in funding for dike improvements along Boundary Bay in Ladner. The estimated cost of bringing Delta's dikes up to 2100 flood levels and seismic standards is about $1.9 billion.
“We're grateful for the money we've received through grants, but it's not getting the job done. It pales in comparison to what's needed,” said Mayor George Harvie.
He was among those who pushed for the creation of Metro Vancouver's new flood resiliency task force, which aims to work with the Fraser Valley Regional District to move closer to a regional flood mitigation strategy and find a way to pay for it.
The chair of the Metro Vancouver task force, Pitt Meadows Mayor Bill Dingwall, said his community needs $120 million in dike upgrades.
Splitting the cost with senior levels of government so Pitt Meadows pays 20 or 30 per cent would still be “financially impossible,” he said. “We need reliable, predictable funding, not grant by grant.”
Neal Carley, general manager of parks, planning and environment at Metro Vancouver, said to be effective, a “cooperative, collaborative, co-ordinated approach” to the flood risk on the lower Fraser River is needed.
The challenges are not limited to the Lower Mainland.
In Keremeos, a recent flood hazard report showed huge risk from an upriver “orphaned” dike for which no government has responsibility. A breach could displace 62 per cent of the community 's 1,500 residents and cause property damage up to $185 million.
Work is underway to determine a cost for needed upgrades, but it's still unclear who will pay for the work, said Marj Coulson, the village's chief administrative officer.
There are more than 100 orphaned dikes in B.C., including on the Chilliwack, Coquitlam and Fraser rivers. A FBC report prepared in 2020 estimates upgrade costs at $865 million — should any government take responsibility.
Even large cities, with higher property tax revenue, like Vancouver, are struggling to mitigate against the effects of climate change, with sea levels expected to rise half a metre by 2050, and one metre by the end of the century.
In January, the city had a glimpse of the challenges to come as raging winds produced a storm surge during a king tide. The storm pummelled the waterfront and tore through parts of the Stanley Park seawall as if it were papier mâché.
A 2018 report pegs the cost of flood protection works needed in the city of Vancouver by 2100 at $1 billion.
Work has started on a long-term funding strategy to support and implement coastal flood construction.
“It is important to note that coastal flood protection is not the sole responsibility of the city, as strategic partnership and longterm funding commitment from senior levels of governments is crucial for a sustainable program,” said a city communications official, Tessa Smith.
In some cases, the cost of raising dikes and protecting communities is unknown. Of 75 communities facing flood risk examined by Postmedia, more than two-thirds do not have a costed plan, only have a partial plan or have just started work to create a plan.
In Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, communities without comprehensive, costed flood mitigation plans or with only partial plans, include Maple Ridge, Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, the Township of Langley, Mission, the District of Kent (including Agassiz) and White Rock.
Only Richmond has a robust local flood protection tax levy expected to raise $30 million annually by 2030. A handful of other communities, largely in Metro Vancouver, collect some money in stormwater, drainage or dike fees, but it is significantly less.
Asked about the possibility of a similar idea for Princeton, Coyne pointed to the differences between Richmond, which had $355 million in property taxes and utility fees in 2020, and his community, with $3.2 million in property taxes.
“It's just not feasible,” he said. “Even if we raised taxes, it wouldn't come close to covering the cost. Everything I do, I do for my children and my grandchildren and my great-grandchildren. But we need help with this.”
This is obviously beyond the ability of local governments. There is a need for longer-term funding. STEVE LITKE, Fraser Basin Council programs manager
LIMITED PROGRESS
Asked about funding for flood prevention work during an April news conference, B.C. Public Safety Minister Mike Farnworth recognized communities have “different needs and different requirements.” He said it will be important to establish priorities to put limited funds to best use, but did not explain how the current system might be improved to do that.
Bill Blair, the federal public safety minister, said a “considerable” amount of work is needed on flood and wildfire preparedness and prevention.
“It's why we are working collaboratively together, to establish an appropriate governance structure that listens to the important perspectives and the needs of all members of government and First Nations working together, because we're going to have to make some difficult decisions on how we prioritize the expenditure of limited dollars.”
Working to rebuild her house, Princeton resident Rhonda Warner wasn't focused on governance issues or rising rivers.
Late Nov. 15, she drove her car, water sloshing, away from her home to check on her elderly father in a nearby house. As the water rose higher, her husband had to swim back to rescue her birds. The couple lost almost everything else.
Like hundreds of British Columbians displaced by flood and fire last year, she's in “survival” mode now.