Arctic Council in jeopardy

Members worry Russia's absence stalling progress

WASHINGTON/LONDON/ O S L O • For nearly three decades, the Arctic Council has been a successful example of post-Cold War co-operation.

Its eight members, including Canada, Russia and the United States, have co-operated on climate-change research and social development across the ecologically sensitive region.

Now, a year after council members stopped working with Russia following its invasion of Ukraine and as Norway prepares to assume the chairmanship from Moscow on May 11, experts are asking whether the polar body's viability is at risk if it cannot co-operate with the country that controls over half of the Arctic coastline.

An ineffective Arctic Council could have dire implications for the region's environment and its four million inhabitants who face the effects of melting sea ice and the interest of non-Arctic countries in the region's untapped mineral resources.

The work of the council, which comprises the eight Arctic states of Finland, Norway, Iceland, Sweden, Russia, Denmark, Canada and the United States, in the past has produced binding agreements on environmental protection and preservation.

It is also a rare platform giving a voice to the region's Indigenous peoples. It does not deal with security issues.

But with the end of co-operation with Moscow, about a third of the council's 130 projects are on hold, new projects cannot go ahead and existing ones cannot be renewed. Western and Russian scientists no longer share climate-change findings, for example, and co-operation for possible search-and-rescue missions or oil spills has stopped.

“I am worried that this will really hobble the ability of the Arctic Council to work through these various issues,” U.S. Senator Angus King told Reuters.

The Arctic is warming about four times as fast as the rest of the world.

As sea ice vanishes, polar waters are opening to shipping and other industries eager to exploit the region's bounty of natural resources, including oil, gas, and metals such as gold, iron and rare earths.

The discord between Russia and the other Arctic Council members means that an effective response to these changes is less likely.

“Norway has a big challenge,” said John Holdren, co-director of the Harvard

Kennedy School's Arctic Initiative and a former science adviser to U.S. president Barack Obama.

“That's how to rescue as much as possible of the Arctic Council's good work in the absence of Russia.”

Russia argues this work cannot continue without it.

The council is weakening, Russian Arctic Ambassador Nikolay Korchunov told Reuters, saying he was not confident it “will be able to remain the main platform on Arctic issues.”

Adding to the worries is the possibility that Russia will go its own way on issues affecting the region or even establish a rival council.

Recently, it has taken steps to expand co-operation in the Arctic with non-Arctic states. On April 24, Russia and China signed a memorandum establishing co-operation between the countries' coast guards in the Arctic.

Russia's Korchunov said Moscow welcomed non-Arctic states in the region, provided they did not come with a military agenda.