Ski resort operators get shot in arm with La Niña expected to follow El Niño

That chill you feel in the air? That's a glimmer of hope for next year's ski season, with experts pointing to what could be a colder-than-normal winter for B.C.'s mountains.

The World Meteorological Organization said Tuesday that El Niño is weakening and there's an 80 per cent chance of neutral conditions in April through June. El Niño peaked in December as one of the five strongest on record, it added.

The organization also said there's a chance the ocean-warming phenomenon could transition to La Niña later in the year.

Lisa Erven, a meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, said La Niña favours a colder than normal winter for B.C.'s South Coast, meaning there's a decent chance for lower freezing levels and more snow on the low-elevation mountains.

However she stressed that each winter is different, even with La Niña or El Niño.

“As we saw with the strong El Niño that occurred this winter, we still had a period of record-breaking cold temperatures mid-January. And likewise during La Niña years we can still get above normal temperatures and that can play havoc with our winter tourism season. But yes, La Niña does weight the odds in favour of colder than normal temperatures,” said Erven.

El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years, and typically lasts nine to 12 months. It is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, according to the World Meteorological Organization.

In a statement, the organization said this El Niño happened as human activities like burning fossil fuels continue to drive climate change.

“Every month since June 2023 has set a new monthly temperature record — and 2023 was by far the warmest year on record. El Niño has contributed to these record temperatures, but heat-trapping greenhouse gases are unequivocally the main culprit,” secretary general Celeste Saulo said in a statement. “Ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific clearly reflect El Niño. But sea surface temperatures in other parts of the globe have been persistently and unusually high for the past 10 months.”

The continuing, albeit weaker, El Niño and above-normal sea-surface temperatures over much of the planet's oceans are expected to lead to above-normal temperatures over almost all land areas in the next three months.