OPTIONS ABOUND FOR NEW COACHES AS NFL FREE AGENCY WINDOW OPENS
Several QBS available, while running backs are bargain buys,
NFL free agency kicks off next week, with plenty of reasons to pay attention: A robust new salary cap, a crop of veteran quarterbacks who could be on the move, eight new head coaches ready to start assembling their rosters and more. Here are some of the top storylines to monitor:
WILL VETERAN RUNNING BACKS GET PAID?
Once again, there is uncertainty in the running back market. The league's most reputationally depressed position shows few signs of fiscal progress — even with a bumper crop of backs available — although there might be one division willing to at least somewhat buck the trend.
Could the NFC North be, if not salvation for some of the NFL'S best-known running backs, at least a safe haven of sorts? Conversations with numerous executives and agents involved in the process — who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of negotiations — revealed a consensus that three teams in that division seem willing to invest in the ground game to some degree. The Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears acted at the scouting combine like teams interested in securing a feature back, according to all those I spoke with, and the Green Bay Packers could emerge as well. Green Bay is almost certain to move on from power back AJ Dillon while also mired in what appears to be a thorny renegotiation process with 2020 Pro Bowl back Aaron Jones.
Regardless, once again few teams appear eager to significantly advance running back salaries, and former franchise cornerstones like Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs face a nebulous future at a time when free agent receivers, safeties and even defensive tackles seem likely to have their salary goals met by multiple suitors.
Anyone thinking a running back salary recalibration was coming a year after Jacobs, Barkley and Tony Pollard were hit with the franchise tag (about US$10 million in 2023) is headed for a cruel spring. Several backs could face an arduous path back to that threshold, with the NFLPA advising contract negotiators to be ready to pounce as soon as the market opens.
“I don't disagree with you that on a down-to-down basis, it's possible to get more value out of a back than other positions, maybe even receiver depending on the offence and the quality of the quarterback,” said one NFL general manager, whose team is involved in running back discussions and who is not permitted to speak publicly about salary expectations. “But I don't think the (financial) numbers are really there for any of these guys.
“It's a pretty strong (free agent) class. There are going to be starters in the second day of the draft, and this is all just supply and demand. There's more supply available at this position and less demand than for other positions. You tell me, where is Barkley going? Who is giving him
$12 million a year?”
As one agent put it: “Everybody is still trying to figure out what this market is ... and it might not be great for us. I think it's going to be tough.”
If Barkley leaves the Giants, who selected him second overall in 2018, then I'd consider Chicago or Minnesota premier landing spots, in which case the Giants would seek a cheaper alternative. Raiders coach Antonio Pierce and owner Mark Davis are known to love Jacobs, the NFL'S leading rusher just two years ago, who is still younger and fresher than other high-end backs in this market, and a reunion could be in order. The Cowboys, Broncos and Ravens are trawling the lower tiers of this market, which includes backs such as Zack Moss of the Colts and D'andre Swift of the Eagles.
And the Packers, with an emerging franchise quarterback still making peanuts on a rookie deal, could be the wild card in all of this. Jones has not been durable — Green Bay paid him close to $11 million last season for just 142 carries and two touchdowns. He's earned more than $30 million from Green Bay and that franchise is adamant about being balanced offensively as quarterback Jordan Love enters his second full season as a starter. Chances are it can find a new every-down back for far less per year than Jones' current 2024 cost of $12 million. If Jones is cut, I'd expect an immediate call from Baltimore and Dallas, among others.
CHARGERS, SAINTS NEED TO DO SOME TRIMMING
The Los Angeles Chargers and New Orleans Saints have yet to engage in many transactions, complete many renegotiations or release many players. The rest of the league is waiting — and looking to pounce.
Both clubs face some daunting salary cap challenges, even with the cap going up, and the players they inevitably release will not factor into the league's compensatory pick process, adding value. It's widely expected the Chargers will move either receiver Keenan Allen or Mike Williams, and either pass rusher Joey Bosa or Khalil Mack.
“They want to move Williams, but they can't get what they want with him coming off the ACL (tear),” said another GM who is not permitted to speak about players under contract to other teams.
“But they're trading one of them. I think that's a total startover for (new coach Jim) Harbaugh. Out with the old.” Predicted another GM: “I think Mack or Bosa ends up in Detroit.”
The Saints seem to flirt with salary cap disaster every year, but they are in a real pickle now. “They've got to make a purge,” said a rival executive, who is not allowed to discuss other franchises. “It's coming.”
The Saints are pushing to find a trade partner for cornerback Marshon Lattimore and linebacker Demario Davis, two linchpins of their defence, according to people in the industry. Both teams' rosters will look markedly different by the middle of next week.
WHITHER JUSTIN FIELDS?
The Bears seem to be overplaying their hand with quarterback Justin Fields, who I reported months ago would be traded before the draft.
Multiple rival executives suggested to me that Falcons owner Arthur Blank is higher on Fields, a former first-round pick, than many of his football staffers, and Atlanta is doing a lot of work on free agents Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson, as well. I expect one of those three will land in Atlanta.
The Raiders are also monitoring the Fields situation, and one GM and one personnel executive told me they believe Fields could still end up with the Steelers by next week. “I think the best deal they can make is with Pittsburgh,” the executive said of the Bears.
SPEAKING OF QUARTERBACKS ...
Don't discount the possibility that quarterbacks could make up the first four picks in the draft and, as I indicated in December, six quarterbacks are likely going in the first round. Caleb Williams should go first to Chicago, barring the Bears getting a ridiculous offer.
The New England Patriots may be higher on North Carolina's Drake Maye than the Washington Commanders, and I continue to hear the Giants have a thing for Michigan's J.J. Mccarthy. Three executives in the league told me they would not be surprised if New York moved up to Arizona's fourth overall pick to make sure they land him.
HOW WILL SEATTLE'S NEW COACH REBUILD DEFENCE?
Many executives predicted Ravens second-team All-pro linebacker Patrick Queen will head to Seattle, now coached by his former co-ordinator Mike Macdonald.
Queen would assume the role Roquan Smith had in Baltimore as the “Mike” linebacker, while former Carolina Panthers safety Jeremy Chinn is viewed by some in the Seahawks organization as the closest thing they can find to Ravens hybrid safety/big nickel defensive back Kyle Hamilton. One longtime evaluator believes Chinn is the best value free agent in the entire class (“Kyle Hamilton lite,” he said).
The Eagles are also expected to make a significant move at safety.
FIVE OTHER THINGS TO LOOK FOR
■ The 49ers are working to extend receiver Brandon Aiyuk, and if and when they do, “I think they'll trade Deebo (Samuel),” one of the GMS said.
■ Multiple GMS said the Cleveland Browns made it clear they are open to dealing one of their top cornerbacks as they try to balance salaries after years of heavy spending.
■ Not everyone I spoke to is convinced the Kansas City Chiefs are going to bring back star defensive tackle Chris Jones, but the industry very much expects the Chiefs to up their spending on the offensive side of the ball, with receiver an obvious need.
■ Look for the Houston Texans to come out swinging in free agency, with several GMS predicting former Miami Dolphins defensive tackle Christian Wilkins will be part of their haul.
■ Agents came away from the scouting combine convinced the Panthers will add multiple skill players to their offence through free agency and trades.