B.C. NDP leads rivals comfortably in latest poll

With the provincial election just seven months away, the B.C. NDP finds itself in a comfortable, yet dangerous, position.

According to the latest Angus Reid Institute poll on voter intention, it appears Premier David Eby's party has a sizable lead ahead of Kevin Falcon's B.C. United and John Rustad's B.C. Conservatives, as well as the benefit of being the incumbent party.

The NDP remains the party of choice for most voters when it comes to tackling key issues in B.C., despite most respondents saying they don't feel the provincial government has met expectations when it comes to improving on the cost of living and health care access.

As far as party leaders go, Eby still remains in the lead with the highest approval when compared to Falcon and Rustad.

Though Eby's approval levels have yet to match those of his predecessor — John Horgan held personal approval ratings that remained firmly in majority territory for much of his time in office — Eby has maintained an approval rating between 46 and 48 per cent for more than a year.

Falcon, despite increasing a few percentage points, remains at 21 per cent approval, while Rustad remains at 22 per cent approval.

Eby's approval is highest in the Metro Vancouver region, at 54 per cent, but he maintains 41 per cent support in the Lower Mainland/ Fraser Valley and 49 per cent on the Island and North Coast.

Falcon is more consistent across the province, with approval ratings between 19 and 25 per cent in all areas, while Rustad has an approval rating low of 16 per cent in Metro Vancouver but a 33 per cent high in the Interior and the North.

Though voters are more likely to say the provincial government has done a poor job on key issues identified as priorities — such as climate change, health care, street crime, cost of living, and housing affordability — the NDP remains the top pick to continue governing.

Some 40 per cent of respondents say the NDP led by Eby is still their pick to tackle health-care issues, while only 14 per cent would opt for Falcon's United and 15 per cent would choose the provincial Conservative party.

Some 25 per cent are not convinced any of the parties will perform.

When it comes to cost of living, the NDP is also the best option, at 33 per cent, to deal with that issue head on, while only 16 per cent feel Falcon's United and 18 per cent think Rustad's Conservatives could put a dent in cost-of-living challenges.

With the election more than half a year away, 43 per cent of respondents say they intend to vote NDP, while 22 per cent plan to vote Conservative and 22 per cent are going with United. Just 12 per cent say they plan to vote Green, and the remaining one per cent for other parties.

And while the NDP appears to be riding a positive wave toward the fall election, it may not take much to topple Eby's party.

The poll also asked respondents whether it's time for a change in government, with 51 per cent saying yes, while just 32 per cent said no. The remaining 18 per cent remains unsure.

The motivation, however, is not entirely straightforward. The poll found that 55 per cent of voters who support the NDP do so because they truly like the party and what it stands for. However, 45 per cent support the NDP because they simply dislike the other options more.

The poll was conducted online from Feb. 28 to March 6 and analyzed responses from a representative randomized sample of 809 British Columbian adults who are members of the Angus Reid Forum.

For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size has a margin of error plus or minus three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.