Opposition face huge challenges after 2015 defeat
OTTAWA — When he dropped out of the Conservative leadership race last week, Tony Clement happened to mention a recent opinion poll that had him running in second place behind rival Maxime Bernier.
Clement neglected to mention that particular survey’s actual front-runners: “Someone Else” and “Don’t Know.”
Sure, it’s early, and polls often leave a lot to be desired. But the collective shrug expressed in that Forum Research survey nicely encapsulates the challenge both the Conservatives and the NDP are facing one year after their respective election defeats.
As much as the 2015 election was a resounding political comeback for the Liberals, it was a bitter pill for the governing Conservatives and a body blow for the New Democrats.
The latter party went from being poised to form the firstever federal NDP government to a crushing third-place finish, losing 50 seats in the process — including a number of highprofile MPs who were washed away by public appetite for change.
The Tories, gambling on one of the longest campaign windows in modern political history, found themselves undone by a Liberal leader who surpassed low expectations and the everpresent Senate expenses scandal, which generated headlines all through the campaign.
That said, Tories and New Democrats alike say cracks are starting to appear in the Liberal armour, and their leadership issues will be resolved in time. But there remain significant hurdles to clear in order for either party to contend in 2019 — or even 2023.
Conservatives: Though the divisive legacy of Stephen Harper looms large, Conservatives insist they aren’t as badly off as people might think. The party continues to outstrip the Liberals in fundraising, they point out, and their core message of lower taxes and fiscal responsibility still resonates with many voters.
They also cite strong performances by interim leader Rona Ambrose and members of her shadow cabinet in the House of Commons.
“There is a strong basis (for growth),” said Clement, who served in the Health and Industry portfolios under Harper. “It’s not only veterans but newcomers in caucus. There’s a good cross-section of men and women.”
Party insiders say they will keep up the pressure on what they consider the government’s vulnerabilities: economic growth, foreign policy and the ever-present spectre of Liberal entitlement.
The hope is to give the new leader some ammunition for when he or she arrives next May. Who that will be remains an open question, especially now that former cabinet heavyweights Jason Kenney, Peter MacKay and Clement have opted out. The current field comprises only lesser-known MPs, such as Bernier, Andrew Scheer, Brad Trost, Kellie Leitch and Erin O’Toole.
“The dynamic changed when neither of the two favourites entered, Peter MacKay and Jason Kenney,” said Conservative strategist and Summa Strategies vice-president Tim Powers.
“That doesn’t mean this current crop can’t have some real stars emerge and earn their stripes. But it’s hard to see the stars there.”
The New Democrats: Make no mistake: it’s been a tough 12 months for the NDP. Fundraising has all but dried up. Popular support has collapsed. And with the centrist Liberals in power, the party is still trying to figure out where to anchor itself on the political spectrum.
New Democrats say many of those issues will be cleared up once a new leader is chosen. . Six months in, no one has come forward to run for what former NDP strategist and Media Style creative director Ian Capstick calls “the worst job in Canadian politics.”