The search for Trans Mountain’s 15,000 construction jobs
When Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced approval of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project, he said it “will create 15,000 new, middle class jobs — the majority of them in the trades.”
Natural Resources Minister Jim Carr repeatedly points to this figure to justify the federal government’s approval. He says, “the project is expected to create 15,000 new jobs during construction.” Alberta Premier Rachel Notley also relies on it: “Initially we’re looking at about 15,000 jobs ...” Former B.C. premier Christy Clark said, “And then there’s Kinder Morgan, 15,000 new jobs ...”
I asked the prime minister’s staff to explain how the figure was developed. They didn’t. I even wrote the prime minister directly. I received no reply. Notley’s office said it came from the industry and directed me to Trans Mountain’s website. There it was: “During construction, the anticipated workforce will reach the equivalent of 15,000 jobs per year.” Kinder Morgan provided no insight on how that figure was derived. I inquired directly and was told, “the figures come from two Conference Board of Canada reports.” Links to those reports were provided.
I read both reports. Neither included reference to 15,000 construction jobs. What they did provide was a figure of 58,037 person years of project development employment, over seven years beginning in 2012. I knew the 58,037 figure to be the same as that provided in a Conference Board of Canada report authored in 2013 and filed by Kinder Morgan as part of the discredited National Energy Board hearing. The conference board based its estimate on an input-output model that — because of its many design flaws — delivers highly exaggerated results.
I was still at a loss as to how the 15,000 construction workforce figure was derived. I wrote Kinder Morgan again. The company responded: “person years of employment during project development is 58,037. This figure has been divided by three years and 10 months resulting in an equivalent of 15,000 jobs.” I asked Kinder Morgan why almost four years was chosen as the time horizon for construction when the project will take two. This is when the company stopped answering my questions on construction employment.
The conference board didn’t estimate construction jobs, Kinder Morgan did. Kinder Morgan divided 48 months into the board project development figure, then multiplied it by 12 months to arrive at 15,000 jobs a year. Inappropriately, the figure was renamed as construction workforce.
Even if the conference board’s figure of 58,037 person years of development employment was reliable — which it’s not — that number can’t arbitrarily be divided by 48 months of a longer project timetable and then the result annualized so the proponent can claim there will be 15,000 construction jobs.
Kinder Morgan had no business altering the time horizon or renaming the nature of the employment to characterize it as something it’s not. The company’s 15,000 construction workforce figure is meaningless.