PCs can’t move too far from the political centre to succeed
However it is resolved, the spectre of Patrick Brown looms over the Ontario Progressive Conservative leadership campaign. When scandal engulfed him on January 24, it at first seemed to some that the biggest victim was Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne. Her gradual political recovery had been associated with creeping doubts about Brown’s competence.
The elevated Conservative position in opinion polls of a year ago had come crashing back down to earth because of Brown’s increasingly tarnished persona, even before the allegations of sexual misconduct. Since his resignation as leader, accompanied by abandonment of his staff and his pathetic fleeing from the media, things have only gotten worse. There are additional charges of corruption, interference in nomination contests, and falsification of membership records.
With Brown now gone after an aborted attempt to rehabilitate himself, the Ontario electorate’s previously manifested preference for change after 15 years of Liberal governance is likely to return. In assessing the various Conservative candidates, the one Liberals would most prefer to face is undoubtedly Tania Granic Allen. While an articulate and passionate advocate for a pro-life agenda, and reforming the sex education curriculum, her championing of Christian social conservatism is simply too extreme to lead the party to victory, and she will probably be the first candidate eliminated.
Doug Ford would be the next most likely candidate to gladden the heart of Premier Wynne. His combative “shoot from the hip” rhetoric is overly reminiscent of our southern neighbour’s new president. His bombastic style does resonate with a certain segment of the party membership. However Conservatives should remember that in the last three elections, the party entered the contest in a very competitive position, and then had leaders blow it with controversial issues and statements. Ford’s style makes him an accident waiting to happen, and my guess is that PC members are looking for a winner rather than an iconoclast.
That leaves Christine Elliott and Caroline Mulroney as the most plausible alternatives to appeal to moderate Ontarians. Both come from families with prominent names, and perhaps wouldn’t be in politics at all were it not for Elliott’s husband and former Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, and Caroline’s father Brian, the former prime minister.
The alternatives reflect a choice between an experienced old hand, and a potentially exciting new face in the spirit of Justin Trudeau at the federal level. Christine Elliott has served nine years in the provincial legislature and is a twice defeated candidate for her party’s leadership, but she is less likely to be mistake prone during the forthcoming provincial election contest to be held on June 7.
Caroline Mulroney is telegenic, media savvy, well funded, and has good political genes. Still, she is untried, seemed tentative and less assured in the leadership debates, and is proposing to begin her public career at the top. If the party was trailing in the polls, the risk of her making a beginner’s mistake might seem worth it in order to project enthusiasm and innovation. However while public opinion data have been scarce, the limited evidence presented since Brown’s departure from the scene suggest that the PCs have rebounded and are now ahead. When one puts this altogether, Elliott seems like the more risk averse selection.
If the Conservatives are to gain a legislative majority, the most likely path is to improve their performance in the suburban and exurban ring. The greatest number is in the Greater Toronto Area from Oakville to Oshawa and northward toward Newmarket. There are also a number of competitive seats in the area bounded by Hamilton, Kitchener and Milton. It would seem that Elliott and Mulroney would be better positioned to win such swing areas than the more ideological hard line candidates.
What this portends for the provincial campaign remains to be seen, but I would expect the Conservatives to press their apparent edge with a “time for a change” theme. The Liberals are likely to emphasize their social policy reforms such as the increased minimum wage and pharmacare expansion. Ford and Allen have pushed Elliott and Mulroney to take a more rightward stance on the carbon tax among other issues, but they can’t allow themselves to be moved too far from the political centre where Ontario majorities are usually won.