‘Geography of disruption’ puts Cambridge jobs at risk
City more vulnerable than others because automation, trade interruptions could push out workers, new study shows
CAMBRIDGE — A government-funded study into the “geography of disruption” has found that Cambridge is at a higher risk of losing jobs than almost any other city across south-central Ontario.
The city’s economy faces “heightened vulnerability” because it has a high percentage of export-driven manufacturing jobs that could disappear due to automation or trade disruptions.
“This is the new normal — disruption, uncertainty, rapid change,” study author and urban planner Pamela Blais told scholars and promoters of economic development this month.
“I think we really do need to begin to plan for disruption.”
Other cities facing “heightened vulnerability” include Guelph, Caledon and Milton. Cities least vulnerable to job losses include Toronto, Orillia and Waterloo.
Cambridge is reeling from the sudden loss of hundreds of jobs at recreational vehicle-maker Erwin Hymer Group.
The firm went into receivership Friday amid allegations it exaggerated and mischaracterized its profitability. It employed 850 people at plants in Cambridge and Kitchener.
Economic developers see unique circumstances.
“You can’t look at the Erwin Hymer situation and say that it has to do with robots or trade disruptions,” said Tony LaMantia, president of the Waterloo Region Economic Development Corporation. “This is not typical competitive challenges.”
The demise of Erwin Hymer follows a planning study released by the Neptis Foundation think tank in November. The study, funded by the provincial government, mapped almost four million jobs across 38 communities to identify jobs that are most at risk.
It concludes that up to 21,075 Cambridge jobs, accounting for one in three city jobs, are at the highest risk due to automation, trade disruptions, or both. This level of vulnerability is well above the average within the Greater Golden Horseshoe in southern Ontario.
The study cites two risks. As automation technology advances, “certain types of work could be eliminated or workers replaced by machines,” the study reports.
Automation will also create new jobs, the study says. But there’s no way to
know today if new jobs will settle where old jobs disappear.
The other risk is a heavy reliance on exports. This includes the auto sector and factories that make semiconductors, computers and communications devices, and aerospace equipment.
“Disruption to trade would impact some of our most advanced, productive industries,” the study reports.
In weighing job risks across the economic landscape, the study points to Cambridge as the second most vulnerable community, behind New Tecumseth. That’s among 38 communities in an Ontario region that’s home to nine million people.
“We need to all be aware of those sudden disrupters,” said Greg Durocher, president of the Cambridge Chamber of Commerce.
The study “should bring awareness to government that they need to be ahead of the curve,” he said. This means working harder to help expand trade, and providing incentives to help companies that lag.
“We see more companies going out of business because they are not adopters of technology, than companies going out of business that are adopters of technology,” he said.
Durocher expects Cambridge will adapt to job-killing disruptions.
Mayor Kathryn McGarry agrees, citing the applied research hub to help manufacturing opened by Conestoga College in central Cambridge.
“We continue to work with our partners in looking at how we can address future trends in manufacturing,” McGarry said.
“I think there will be more, not fewer jobs in the future.”
The planning study shows Kitchener with middling job vulnerability and Waterloo with low vulnerability. These cities have a higher share of jobs not at risk to automation or trade disruptions.
LaMantia’s advice to employers is to “move up the value chain” by investing in technology and training, to improve production margins, diversify markets, and protect against trade disruptions.
He cites Toyota’s investments in its Cambridge and Woodstock auto assembly plants.
Blais argues that municipal governments can take steps to ease economic vulnerabilities in cities such as Cambridge.
Land use plans should be regionalized, not fragmented.
Municipal plans and approvals should be more flexible, forward-looking, and more analytical.
Governments should promote urban environments to attract a wider pool of workers.
The study states: “Attracting employees also means creating a high-quality urban environment — one that integrates transit, provides a walkable and cyclable public realm, and offers worker amenities and services, such as restaurants, cafés, shops, daycares, or recreational facilities.”
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