Most new cases among young and mobile

Demographics of COVID-19 in Waterloo Region changing as outbreaks among elderly are contained

WATERLOO REGION — COVID-19 is reasserting itself as a disease of the young and mobile after ravaging the elderly and infirm.

In the early days of the pandemic “it was oftentimes people that weren’t in the older age groups that were getting infected,” said Dr. Hsiu-Li Wang, acting medical officer of health. “We could be returning to that now.”

Over the past month in this region:

á There are as many new infections reported among people younger than 20 as among people aged 80 or older;

á People aged 20 to 29 account for almost a quarter of 253 new infections, leading all age groups;

á The next group to see the most new infections is people aged 30 to 39.

To be clear, there is no major surge in infections among people younger than 38, the median age of regional residents.

Rather, as outbreaks dwindle in nursing and retirement homes, infections are no longer surging among the elderly, letting a different picture of the pandemic reveal itself.

Among teens and children, infections are inching up daily and have almost tripled in a month although the numbers remain small, public health data shows. Among people aged 20 to 39, new infections have held more or less steady since April.

What’s changed is that cases among younger people are no longer obscured by the assault on facilities for the elderly, where 95 people died.

In key ways this is how the disease is expected to behave, experts say. It infects people who move around and are more exposed. Younger people are more mobile so they catch it more.

Younger people are also better able to survive it. No one younger than 40 has died of COVID-19 in this region and only three of 113 who died were younger than 60, provincial data shows.

That’s no reason to feel invincible, warns Zahid Butt, a public health professor at the University of Waterloo. Younger people have died of COVID-19 elsewhere and ailments such as asthma may put infected youth at greater risk.

The disease is new and “once we start getting more cases among the younger population, we’ll get more idea of how it affects them,” he said.

Experts suspect broader testing helps explain why younger people are now reporting more infections, including some who may never show symptoms.

“I think most of this is due to expanding testing beyond those who are very ill,” said Chris Bauch, a mathematician at UW who studies the spread of infectious disease.

Bauch sees better infection control restraining the virus in elderly care. He figures warmer weather invites children to go outside but warns that kids may not maintain a safe distance.

The reopening of the economy encourages people to move around and there’s concern that lockdown fatigue is undermining public health precautions.

“Definitely there’s an element of pandemic fatigue. That leads to more exposure,” Butt said. Recent COVID trends are “likely to look different,” Wang said. “Before, our numbers were very much influenced by what was happening in long-term care and retirement homes.” With files from Johanna Weidner.